USDJPY: Bears have strong reasons to regain control

gesternAs Yen traders return from a long weekend, the USDJPY is testing its recent dip from a five-week-old downward resistance line, influenced by a rebound in the US Dollar. It’s worth noting that the quote’s recovery in the last week benefited from positive signals from the RSI and MACD indicators, bouncing back from a nine-month horizontal support zone.

Sellers keep the reins

While USDJPY buyers are making their presence felt, a bearish RSI divergence and a moving average crossover, combined with the resistance line, keep sellers optimistic about potential downward moves. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed below the 200-EMA, signaling a bearish trend. Additionally, the higher high on the indicator contrasts with the lower high in prices, reinforcing the bearish RSI divergence.

Key technical levels to watch

Sellers will gain confidence if USDJPY breaks below a seven-week horizontal support area around 141.70-80. However, the lows from December 2023 and September 2024 pose a challenge for bears at 140.20-139.60. If the pair drops below 139.60, it could test the mid-2023 low near 137.30.

On the flip side, buyers will initially target the falling resistance line around 144.25. If successful, they may then aim for the monthly high and late August peak near 147.20 and 149.40, respectively. Additionally, the 150.00 level acts as an important barrier for any upward movement.

Bulls face more challenges than bears

Whether through technical signals or the differing monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), USDJPY sellers face a relatively smoother journey compared to buyers.