Weekly (W1)
After a RSI bearish divergence detected the week before, the last week price action triggered a "Bearish Engulfing pattern" which should be seen as a second
warning signal calling for a trend reversal !
Indeed, looking back we can see 2 clear trends and in monitoring the ongoing uptrend we can easily see the failure to confirm an upside breakout of the ongoing
uptrend channel.
So, looking forward, it is likely to see further downside towards 1.4850 % first (38.2 % Fib ret & Tenkan-Sen), ahead of 1.4170 % (50% & Kijun-Sen).
Mid-Bollinger Band, slightly below and currently @ 1.40 % should again be seen as the barometer indicator, having in mind the following mood :
Above 1.4000 % bullish (yield) and below 1.4000 % ( bearish yield)
Interesting to note that a failure to stay and hold above 1.4000 % on a weekly closing basis would confirm a downside breakout of this ongoing uptrend channel and potentially
open the door for a new downtrend move, calling for 1.35 % - 1.25 %.
On the upside, only a clear breakout of the former high @ 1.7060 would neutralise the downside risk and would open the door for higher level towards 1.80-1.90 (former congestion top)
Daily (D1) :
Failure to recover both above TS and Mid Bollinger band on a daily closing basis should also be seen as a negative signal, calling for further downside. In addition, the 10 Years US Treasury
is currently flirting with the Kijun-Sen important level support @ 1.550 %.
A daily closing level below 1.55 % would also add further selling pressure (yield) which would open the door for the levels above mentioned in my W1 analysis.
On this time frame, very interesting to note that the clouds support area coincides with the Fibonacci retracement, 1.4170 % and 1.3480 %, being respectively the 50 % and 61.8%.
CONCLUSION :
Watch the clouds on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get intermediate signal (s) for validation or invalidation of the scenarios above mentioned.
H 4 : below the clouds
H1 : bottom of the clouds under attack
M30, M15, M5 : below the clouds
Do you like my analysis ? If yes, do not hesitate to like it and if it is not done yet, please do not forget to add Ironman8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance
All the best and take care.
Ironman8848 :-)
After a RSI bearish divergence detected the week before, the last week price action triggered a "Bearish Engulfing pattern" which should be seen as a second
warning signal calling for a trend reversal !
Indeed, looking back we can see 2 clear trends and in monitoring the ongoing uptrend we can easily see the failure to confirm an upside breakout of the ongoing
uptrend channel.
So, looking forward, it is likely to see further downside towards 1.4850 % first (38.2 % Fib ret & Tenkan-Sen), ahead of 1.4170 % (50% & Kijun-Sen).
Mid-Bollinger Band, slightly below and currently @ 1.40 % should again be seen as the barometer indicator, having in mind the following mood :
Above 1.4000 % bullish (yield) and below 1.4000 % ( bearish yield)
Interesting to note that a failure to stay and hold above 1.4000 % on a weekly closing basis would confirm a downside breakout of this ongoing uptrend channel and potentially
open the door for a new downtrend move, calling for 1.35 % - 1.25 %.
On the upside, only a clear breakout of the former high @ 1.7060 would neutralise the downside risk and would open the door for higher level towards 1.80-1.90 (former congestion top)
Daily (D1) :
Failure to recover both above TS and Mid Bollinger band on a daily closing basis should also be seen as a negative signal, calling for further downside. In addition, the 10 Years US Treasury
is currently flirting with the Kijun-Sen important level support @ 1.550 %.
A daily closing level below 1.55 % would also add further selling pressure (yield) which would open the door for the levels above mentioned in my W1 analysis.
On this time frame, very interesting to note that the clouds support area coincides with the Fibonacci retracement, 1.4170 % and 1.3480 %, being respectively the 50 % and 61.8%.
CONCLUSION :
Watch the clouds on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get intermediate signal (s) for validation or invalidation of the scenarios above mentioned.
H 4 : below the clouds
H1 : bottom of the clouds under attack
M30, M15, M5 : below the clouds
Do you like my analysis ? If yes, do not hesitate to like it and if it is not done yet, please do not forget to add Ironman8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance
All the best and take care.
Ironman8848 :-)
