$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 8 to Dec 12, 2025

🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 8 to Dec 12, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines

🏦 FOMC week: Wednesday’s rate decision and Powell press conference are the dominant catalysts. Markets will focus on wording around inflation progress, growth risks, and timing of future cuts.

🧾 Shutdown-delayed data continues: Job openings, Employment Cost Index, and several September reports are still rolling in late, creating uneven visibility for traders.

📉 Labor and inflation signals midweek: ECI, jobless claims, and trade balance provide additional color on wage pressures and global demand.

🧺 Quiet Monday — then the calendar heats up fast.

📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
MONDAY, DEC 8

• None scheduled

TUESDAY, DEC 9

⏰ 6 00 AM
• NFIB Small Business Optimism (Nov): 98.3

⏰ 10 00 AM
• Job Openings (Oct, delayed): 7.2 million
Note: From the shutdown backlog

WEDNESDAY, DEC 10 — FOMC DAY

⏰ 8 30 AM
• Employment Cost Index, ECI (Q3, delayed): 0.9 percent

⏰ 2 00 PM
• FOMC Interest Rate Decision
• Monthly United States Federal Budget (Nov): –139.6 billion

⏰ 2 30 PM
• Fed Chair Powell Press Conference

THURSDAY, DEC 11

⏰ 8 30 AM
• Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 6): 220,000
• United States Trade Deficit (Sept): –61.6 billion

FRIDAY, DEC 12

⏰ 10 00 AM
• Wholesale Inventories (Sept): Not released for this cycle
Note: September report was canceled; August was the last available

⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational and informational use only — not financial advice.

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