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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 05-09

Long
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TVC:GOLD   GOLD CFD's (US$ / OZ)
Gold saw a pullback of over $15 in a very volatile week of trade which was more or less on the expected lines amidst cautious trading and gold hovering near its 52 week high. Week featured bloodbath in equities on account of bonds sell off which happened after a long time and this might have been the driver of gold to the negative direction as assets come under pressure when losses amass. Though this phenomena is expected to spill over in next week also its not necessary gold will see such pullbacks as it closed above the support of $1331 after testing it which is a positive for the yellow metal.

On the chart –

Gold was trapped in the band of $15 for most of the week but it had its breakout and breakdowns making the range bound week look a volatile one. But it had its takeaways even if it turned out to be rough week for the prices. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1331 and rebounded to close significantly higher, if this support is held then gold can rise back to $1345. If this is crossed it can head higher towards $1358. If this resistance area is conquered it can move towards its highs of $1374.

2. There are no shorts trades unless the support is broken, and if broken the downside is limited to $1317.

Bullish view – Bulls had there chances throughout the week but failed to capitalize on the momentum which was swaying hard and fast. Only consolation and the positive point for them is the support at $1331 was respected and held upon which if still held can restart a fresh upmove. As stated in the earlier post the bulls will remain strong till $1308 is held and another U.S shutdown is looming in the next week which might push the dollar lower again which could be positive for the bulls.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1358 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1331 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1317.
Kommentar:
Trade active
Kommentar:
First long target met at $1345
Kommentar:
Short trade target met at $1317
Kommentar:
Took support at the red ascending trend-line and back above the $1317
Kommentar:
This suggests $1308 is guarded for the moment as anticipated

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