USD down, moving XXX/USD currencies up and USD/XXX currencies down.
USD up, moving XXX/USD currencies down and USD/XXX currencies up.
Mid term (3 wks-6mo) I lean bias towards 2018 trading in RISK ON mode. Which means
EURUSD is a buy mid-term.
USDCAD is a sell mid-term.
In the last several months we have been in RISK ON mode with EURUSD in a obvious uptrend. I've noticed EURCAD trends UP when we are risk on.
So mid-term we cannot expect to short EURCAD because we know the underlying currencies are in up trends. Short term I do believe there is room for a pullback to the 1.53 or 1.52 levels coupled with a pullback in EURUSD . But ultimately I will be looking to trade EURCAD higher in months to come.
Full Disclaimer: This is a test I'm running to better understand how correlations among two USD pegged pairs perform when pegged against each other. I will be referencing both EURUSD and USDCAD often. EURUSD is perfectly 1-1 inversely correlated with USD. This is because the EURUSD is the strongest correlated currency to the USD in the world and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature. Trade between the United States and the European Union is over half of USD transactions so EURO's are the most strongly correlated out of all other currencies. That being said when I'm looking at the price of EURUSD , I'm actually reflecting on the price of USD if that makes any sense. EURUSD is up when USD is down BECAUSE USD is down! I track USD with the US Dollar index . Ticker DXY .
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Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature
On Monday EURUSD fell to the low to clear out some stops before setting up a decent buy signal by clustering in the buy zone. That trade would have been a decent 1x1 through out the afternoon and was a good sign of the bull still in charge.
However on Tuesday, price wicked down to the lows to clear out traders before making the real move higher. What an awesome place that would have been to enter
Risk ON means MidTerm XXX/USD trades higher. USD/XXX trade lower.
Will update on Thursday.
It almost seems like whatever currency is most volatile is the one that maintains general direction against consolidating peers.
For example, when EURUSD pushed lower Monday morning (first blue block) EURCAD ran lower with it. But it appears in the middle of the week tide changed and USDCAD gained control. Then Fridays move in EURCAD is directly related to USDCAD. While EURUSD was unchanged.
I guess this actually reflects a strengthening CAD among all peers. Lets see how this strength compares to others.