NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.
Even a day before, the DXY shot up from the 109 level to test the 110 price level, opening up the possibility of a priced-in scenario. Typically the currencies sit in a tight consolidation in the leadup to the data release, but this time, the DXY is actually dropping before the news.
The DXY could drop lower towards the 109 level (and bottom of the upward channel) before the news or on the release of the news. If the data is better than expected, the USD should strengthen, pushing the price from 109 to 109.50 and possibly even the 110.50 target level.
If the price breaks below the 109 level and beyond the channel, the DXY could continue lower towards the next support level of 108.20 before a possible bounce.
Even a day before, the DXY shot up from the 109 level to test the 110 price level, opening up the possibility of a priced-in scenario. Typically the currencies sit in a tight consolidation in the leadup to the data release, but this time, the DXY is actually dropping before the news.
The DXY could drop lower towards the 109 level (and bottom of the upward channel) before the news or on the release of the news. If the data is better than expected, the USD should strengthen, pushing the price from 109 to 109.50 and possibly even the 110.50 target level.
If the price breaks below the 109 level and beyond the channel, the DXY could continue lower towards the next support level of 108.20 before a possible bounce.
