The start of a long-term bear? fürFX:USOIL von wsbza

trendanalysis waveanalysis elliottwaves zigzag doublezigzag

equality between wave (Y) and (W)

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possible short-term structure

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break below 65.21 would send another invitation to bears

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the decline after flat was in three waves, so the flat could be a wave W instead

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I came up with a different count

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I am shifting my previous preferred count to alternative structure

purple count is my preferred structure

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Since the short-term pattern looks corrective, the July high of $75.25 could be broken again

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and of course, the bearish count may still work, but whether there is any trading opportunity or not, could be a different story
another push above 71.36 would suggest the triangle case mentioned above
any close below 64.4 could lead to further bearish potential (the potential that $75.25 is a larger degree top)

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possible bigger picture

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almost there?

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wave {A} done?

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short-term bullish count

wave {iii} has already surpassed the 1.618 extension (at 50.99)

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the 1.618 extension should be at $51.80

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short-term bullish count in blue, alter count in grey

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if wave {v} has ended at $54.3, we should expect a three wave correction which could drag price back to the end of wave {iv} ( note the pink {a}-{b}-{c} could also be just the wave {a} or {w} at the same degree);
if wave {iv} is still unfolding ( e.g. triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e)), another modest push above $54.3 is possible although I think it's very less likely to happen.

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short-term count

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complex wave 2?

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the alternative count

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running triangle for wave (B)?

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a flat for wave (B)?

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wave (C) is likely underway
alternatively another zigzag decline to complete wave E of (B)

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the alternative triangle probably will not happen, here is my short-term guessing so far

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min target could be at 58.61 where wave (C) = 0.618 wave (A), ideal target is still around $63

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possible short-term count

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flat for wave 2?

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break above wave 1 high of 57.86 could indicate wave 3 of (C) is underway

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Wave (C) could be an ending diagonal

However, we could still assume (C) is an impulse wave rather than diagonal and count the short-term structure as below

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Any close below the red wave 1 high at 57.85 would increase the odd for ending diagonal scenario, although you could still argue this is a 1-2-{i}-{ii} bullish structure

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divergence between RSI & Price

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triangle wave 4 ?

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or flat wave 4 followed by wave 5, wave 5 should be shorter than wave 3

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wave 5 is less likely to move beyond $64.12 ( where wave 5 = wave 3)

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almost there?

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An impulsive fall below wave {iv} low at $61.8 would suggest wave {v} of (C) is in place.
Alternatively, any push above $64.06 would argue wave (C) has more bullish potential.

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if price move above $64.06, I would consider label red wave 3 as {i} of 3 of (C).

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There are number of different ways to count the bullish structure

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short-term count

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The decline was sharp, but it has not made any significant change to the overall structure yet.

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We simply need to see sharp reverse (within the lower time frame) to the upside to keep wave 4 scenario alive.
If price only produce bearish sideways( or any other corrective patterns), then we could refer to the above count and sell after the breakout.

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

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The start of a long-term bear?

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