S&P 500 (Weekly Chart) - Will We See a Crash in 2019?

28. Dez. 2018

The last few weeks saw a large correction in the stock market (which netted us some handsome profits from our short positions), and after the extreme sharp selling, this week we are seeing a rebound in the market.

But the main question on everyone's mind now is whether the market will continue falling in 2019, or whether it has seen a temporary bottom and will continue to make new highs?

In my chart, I have plotted a possible bearish path of the stock market, and the red box shows the duration of the 2008 crash. If the current crash has the same duration, we can expect to see the bottom in Q1 of 2020, meaning 2019 will be mainly bearish.

Alternatively, prices may continue to rally (dotted line) to test prior highs or form a H&S pattern, giving the bull market one more bullish leg.

Personally, given the current climate, I see more bearish (rather than bullish) catalysts in the future, hence I am more inclined to be bearish.

I will continue to use CFDs to swing trade the S&P 500, but I am also preparing a warchest to buy stocks for my long-term investment portfolio.

In the following days, I will be publishing a blog post with my full watchlist and the prices which I plan to buy.

Stay tuned!