NZDUSD bulls struggle to retake control as RBNZ week begins

22. Mai 2023

NZDUSD managed to ignore the US Dollar strength in the last week amid hawkish expectations from the RBNZ. The kiwi pair also bounced off a one-month-old ascending support line, as well as stayed beyond the 200-SMA, to keep the buyers hopeful. However, an expected last rate hike from the New Zealand central bank might pour cold water on the face of the Kiwi pair bulls. Even so, the stated key SMA and immediate support line, respectively near 0.6240 and 0.6210, can challenge the bears before giving them control. Following that, multiple lows marked around 0.6170-60 may rest the downside momentum ahead of highlighting a challenge for the April and May month bottoms, close to 0.6110 and 0.6085 in that order.

Alternatively, a surprise hawkish move and the RBNZ’s restrain from pausing the rate hikes may fuel the NZDUSD price. In that case, a five-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6315 may prod the Kiwi pair buyers. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 0.6315, the monthly high of around 0.6385 may prod the bulls ahead of highlighting the rush towards the yearly high marked in February around 0.6540.

Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain firmer unless any dovish surprise from RBNZ erupts.