NATURAL GAS The top is in. But how low can it go?

Exactly two months ago by making use of Natural Gas' clear long-term cycles, I called for a potential Top of the current Cycle after the formation of a Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame:

Even though the price rose a bit more, the peak was made shortly after. This time I am narrowing the horizon to 5-6 years and as you see the Cycle's peak was made exactly on the Higher Highs trend-line that started after the December 2016 High. An important technical development is that the 1W MACD made a Bearish Cross, which when formed on that Higher Highs trend-line, is a Top. Even though on a multi-year basis, the technical outlook has Natural Gas going as low as the Support Zone, on the less long-term, it may follow a consolidation phase as in 2017.

A long-term startegy for a cyclical investor would be to sell every rebound as the current one and gain from such swings on a 1-2 year horizon. In 2017/2018 it was only when the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level broke, that NG broke down towards the Support Zone. So in such strategy long-term traders may resume selling once the current 0.618 Fib breaks (3.374) towards the Support Zone.



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