EURUSD 16 Jan 2024 W3 - Intraday Analysis - German CPI/ZEW

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 16 Jan 2024 W3 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

4H
15m



NOTE : Still price is ranging and i'm waiting for a break out of that range. Order flow on 4H is currently bearish within the INT Structure so my expectation is to stay bearish and may target the 15m Swing Low. A formation of Bearish Structure will indicate that the 4H Swing pullback is not yet done and we may have a deep pullback within the 4H Swing.


4H Chart Analysis



1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• INT Bullish
  
• OF Bearish
  
• Reached EQ
  

2.

• Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
  
• After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
  
• Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H/Daily demand zones creating Bullish CHoCHs.
  
• Still the OF is bearish within the Swing Pullback phase and the current PA is ranging, but as it's the pullback phase we would expect a Swing bullish continuation from current area or from the Swing extreme.
  
• With the latest Bullish CHoCH, if the demand holds, we could see a Swing continuation to target the current INT High. If demand fails i would expect price continuing to the Swing extreme.
  Lets wait for LTF confirmations and price development.
  

3.

• Swing extreme demand for possible continuation to the upside.
  

15m Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• Internal Bullish
  
• At Swing Extreme Low
  

2.

• INT structure turned Bullish after mitigating the 4H demand zones and reaching the 15m Swing extreme.
  
• The recent break (Fail to close below Swing Low) resulted with another iBOS and formed a 15m/4H Demand zone.
  
• This demand is mitigated now and we are currently ranging.
  

3.

• It's clear now that after NFP and CPI the market is in indecision phase and needs a catalyst to get out of the range.
  
• For me price still Bullish until we have a Bearish Swing (Solid close below Swing Low)
  
• I'll be waiting for more price development outside the range we are currently in.