Dollar Strengthening and the coming election cycle

30. Juni

US Dollar will continue to ping pong between supply and demand during the election cycle. With other major economies like China's being Paper Tigers, the U.S. will by osmosis become stronger. As we learned years ago, nationalized tightly controlled markets don't work as well or at all. The CCP will try and buy gold and other assets to de-dollarize which will only work for so long to make the dollar look weaker than it actually is.

Trump's cabinet is largely ...less scientifically or mathematically inclined when it comes to policy. This will hurt the U.S. economy by increasing tax breaks for corpos and making it harder to maintain a healthy economy as wealth disparity increases. Despite Biden's less than stellar speaking skills, his policies reflect modern neoliberal globalist economic principles which tend to make America wealthier than other superpowers.

Overall, we should expect a hawkish trend despite the extreme propaganda machine telling you that the dollar is weakening. This is a great contrarian opportunity.

That is, if you think Biden will win the election. If not, get ready to look towards other assets like gold and Bitcoin.

5. Aug.

Anmerkung

We can see that the DXY is falling as expected towards demand. We no longer have Biden in the running for US president but Harris is similar enough that this idea should remain in-tact.

31. Aug.

Anmerkung

It's clear that price is now reacting from the demand level. Because elections are coming soon, I would expect the reaction to be based on my previous analysis. A Donald Trump win will cause the dollar to tumble further as Putin secures a victory with his puppet.

However, I expect a Kamala victory to create a strong push of the dollar as NATO is strengthened and Russia and China are slapped on the wrist.

4. Okt.

Anmerkung

We got a nice strong reaction near demand. But a few things to consider. 1) The election cycle is not over. News can easily bring us back to demand one last time. 2) If Trump wins this rally will not continue. 3) If you think we are looking at a Kamala victory, then it may just keep going up from here. In which case you should be looking for discounted demand zones on lower timeframes for you entry.