The Complete DXY Overview - Read The Analysis!

TVC:DXY   US-Dollar Währungsindex
The Dollar Index received a thrashing throughout the entire 2017, leading to most currencies strongly appreciating against the USD. This made for some good trading opportunities, especially for trend traders. If you missed this move, then you may get a second chance. According the the wave count presented above, the DXY may be correcting much deeper than a lot of analysts are proposing. A lot of good traders are calling a larger bounce in the DXY that will take us back towards the 2017 high. This is a solid opinion, but a lot of people have skipped over the idea that the Dollar is possible more bearish . I want to discuss this bearish theory because, if correct, will be extremely significant for all Forex markets.

Firstly, let's start with the bigger picture. We have seen a 5-wave move complete from the low in April 2011 to the truncated high in February 2017. From there, this wave count proposes that we see at least a three wave (a-b-c) correction to the downside, of which we have seen only wave a (and possible b) out of c. This means we can continue to anticipate lower prices going into 2018.

Secondly, I want to point out, we have to adopt a Bayesian trading style when dealing with the Elliott Wave Principle. What I mean, is that we need to use the previous data on the chart and the way the market is currently unfolding to formulate the most probable direction. By always adapting this way, we can increase the chance of being right, which translates to greater accuracy and greater profits when trading.

Using this approach, we need to understand that the market has been in a strong downtrend for over a year now and therefore, trying to pick a bottom is unwise. We must look for evidence that the market has bottomed before we assume it has. An indication would be a clear Five-Wave impulse from the low. As of yet, we haven't had one and so we can assume the downward move can continue.

As you can see I have labeled cycle b as complete as a brief 3 wave zigzag pattern. This may not be the case, and we might see another high above 94.20, in the form of a larger flat, before resuming to the downside. At the moment, we need to see how the downside progresses; I just wanted to point it out because it's definitely something to be aware of.

If we don't in fact see a larger flat, then we cannot rule out, and should possibly expect, another Five-Waves to unfold to the downside, thereby further depreciating the Dollar.
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