BTCUSD H1 chart (8/6/2019)
Good morning, traders. Over night, Bitcoin saw a high of $12320.40 on Coinbase, promptly followed by a drop to $11598.41. Price has continued to drift down less than $100 since then and found support at the R1 pivot and H2 demand. So far, we have seen a good reaction out of that demand and price finds itself sandwiched between the H1 and H2 21 EMAs, just below the descending flag resistance of the dashed red line.
The H1 Stoch RSI is oversold, bouncing off the bottom, and crossing bullishly while RSI is slightly bearish at 47. The H4 Stoch RSI still has room to drop and the RSI remains bullish at 63. Even though we have demand making itself known, I don't know that I trust the local TR at the moment. There appears to be supply continuing to show up at the bottom of it on the lower TFs suggesting that those buying the dip may be getting sold into at this time. The H4 MACD is attempting to cross bearishly, but there is another two hours remaining in the candle so traders should use caution and pay attention to how this plays out over that time. The MACD's histogram is nearing a negative flip, and if it does then we will likely see hidden bullish divergence print on it. The last negative spike was on August 4th at $10654, so price would need to drop below that to invalidate the likely div that will begin printing if price continues to retrace. I will be looking for a bounce around the $10745-$01805 level if that retracement occurs.
The M30 shows bearish divergence printed on RSI and MACD as price hit the overnight high. It also shows bullish divergence printed on RSI with the recent swing low. However, MACD remains without a div for the time being. Further appreciation of price from here over the next 20 minutes would likely see that bull div print on MACD. The daily candle is printing a long-legged doji which is best understood as a "pause." If the candle closes like this, then we will look for the following candle to confirm direction -- a green-bodied candle tomorrow would suggest further upside.
I remain cautiously optimistic about further price appreciation before a more substantial pullback, but we need to see price move above the H1 21 EMA to start putting that into motion. Our targets remain the two red lines we noted yesterday based on the Adam and Eve double bottom and the descending wedge. That would get price up around the H1 R3 pivot. So far, we have merely seen price touch above the R2 pivot and the drop back toward the R1 pivot, as we would normally expect. So while people continue to say that price MUST retrace, I want to remind you that price does not HAVE to do anything at all. It is a constant negotiation between supply and demand.
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_____________________________________________________________
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
The H1 Stoch RSI is oversold, bouncing off the bottom, and crossing bullishly while RSI is slightly bearish at 47. The H4 Stoch RSI still has room to drop and the RSI remains bullish at 63. Even though we have demand making itself known, I don't know that I trust the local TR at the moment. There appears to be supply continuing to show up at the bottom of it on the lower TFs suggesting that those buying the dip may be getting sold into at this time. The H4 MACD is attempting to cross bearishly, but there is another two hours remaining in the candle so traders should use caution and pay attention to how this plays out over that time. The MACD's histogram is nearing a negative flip, and if it does then we will likely see hidden bullish divergence print on it. The last negative spike was on August 4th at $10654, so price would need to drop below that to invalidate the likely div that will begin printing if price continues to retrace. I will be looking for a bounce around the $10745-$01805 level if that retracement occurs.
The M30 shows bearish divergence printed on RSI and MACD as price hit the overnight high. It also shows bullish divergence printed on RSI with the recent swing low. However, MACD remains without a div for the time being. Further appreciation of price from here over the next 20 minutes would likely see that bull div print on MACD. The daily candle is printing a long-legged doji which is best understood as a "pause." If the candle closes like this, then we will look for the following candle to confirm direction -- a green-bodied candle tomorrow would suggest further upside.
I remain cautiously optimistic about further price appreciation before a more substantial pullback, but we need to see price move above the H1 21 EMA to start putting that into motion. Our targets remain the two red lines we noted yesterday based on the Adam and Eve double bottom and the descending wedge. That would get price up around the H1 R3 pivot. So far, we have merely seen price touch above the R2 pivot and the drop back toward the R1 pivot, as we would normally expect. So while people continue to say that price MUST retrace, I want to remind you that price does not HAVE to do anything at all. It is a constant negotiation between supply and demand.
Our premium Discord members now have access to our trading basics course included with their membership! We continue to add more content for new traders to learn how to be more effective and consistent when trading the market.
_____________________________________________________________
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
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