GOLD | $2000 Level Leaves the Door Open for a Move Lower

23. Nov. 2023

XAUUSD PRICE FORECAST:
- Gold Rally Loses Steam at the Psychological 22000/OZ Level.
- DXY Rally Continues as Treasury Yields Rebound as Well all Working Against the Rally in Gold Prices.
- US Heading into the Thanksgiving Break Means Low Liquidity Tomorrow and Potentially Friday as well.

Gold prices continue to find acceptance above the 22000/OZ a step to far. Yesterday saw an aggressive push above the resistance level only foe the Daily Candle to close back below the psychological level. Another attempt today was met with some strong bearish pressure as Gold surrendered its daily high to trade around 11993/OZ at the time of writing.

US DATA AND DXY RECOVERY
The Fed minutes did little to excite markets yesterday largely due to the recent spate of US data showing positive signs. However, the overall mood remains a bit more tentative following hawkish comments from ECB and BOE policymakers keeping market participants on edge.

Of more importance however has been the recent bounce in both US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar Index finding support. This has allowed Gold bears an opportunity to pounce and keep Gold prices from exploding above the 22000/OZ mark.

US Data today had mixed results. Durable Goods Orders for November fell short of forecast, and October's figures were downgraded to 4%. This suggests that the strong demand seen in the US in 2023 may be tapering off. Although Michigan Consumer Sentiment exceeded expectations, it was significantly lower than the October reading. This indicates a continuing downward trend since July and reflects lingering pessimism about the US economy.

With the US Thanksgiving Holiday approaching, there will be no major US data releases for the rest of the week. This could lead to volatility as market participants take profits and adjust their positions ahead of the break. Alternatively, Gold prices may weaken toward the end of the US session as liquidity decreases.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK XAUUSD

Form a technical perspective, Gold continues to throw up slightly mixed signals. It did appear that we had shifted back into bullish structure but following the rejection we are seeing today, this would hint at a new lower high which of course is bearish price action. If the rejection of the 22000/OZ mark gathers steam, then immediate support around $1983 may prove a challenge as we saw earlier this week on the daily timeframe.

All in all, not the easiest to break down from a technical perspective at the moment. Smaller timeframes may be best for those looking for opportunities during the rest of the week with liquidity also expected to be low owing to the Thanksgiving break.

Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:

Resistance levels: 2000.00 - 2008.00 - 2025.00

Support levels: 1983.00 - 1968.00 - 1950.00