NASDAQ (QQQ) Wave Count since 2002
Been a while since I did an Elliott Wave count for QQQ. Here is what I came up with. If wave theory has any real merit, then we clearly look to be in Wave 5 off the 2002 low from the dot com bubble. Inside Wave 5 it looks like we are also in a sub-wave 5. I am basing my analysis off fib levels and some patterns/features that I see in the price action.
It is hard to know where this wave 5 is actually going to stop. Wave theory only gives us general guidelines. Wave 3 typically ends around the 1.7 fib extension and Wave 5 usually around 2.146 to 2.5 (depends on where wave 3 ends). Also, wave 5 is typically 0.618x, 1.0x, or 1.236x wave 1.
Looking at the chart, then 1.0x wave one puts QQQ at the current ATH (184% vs 180% to be exact). This also lines up with a sub-wave 5 ending just a little over 2.0 fib extension off the 2019 low, which is pretty good match to the sub-wave 3 extension just a little over 1.618 (reaches up to touch the major fib of 2.786). That is a pretty encouraging sign that my counts are close.
The question obviously is will it go higher? An extension off Wave 1 to 1.236x would be around $318 (222%) and just around a sub-wave fib ext of 2.236-2.382. If it does make it that high, I would not be surprised if we get one final push to the 3.146 extension to make an ATH of around $500 before the whole thing crashes and burns to the ground like the dot com bubble.
1W
1D
4h
2h
Here is what I see right now.
It is hard to know where this wave 5 is actually going to stop. Wave theory only gives us general guidelines. Wave 3 typically ends around the 1.7 fib extension and Wave 5 usually around 2.146 to 2.5 (depends on where wave 3 ends). Also, wave 5 is typically 0.618x, 1.0x, or 1.236x wave 1.
Looking at the chart, then 1.0x wave one puts QQQ at the current ATH (184% vs 180% to be exact). This also lines up with a sub-wave 5 ending just a little over 2.0 fib extension off the 2019 low, which is pretty good match to the sub-wave 3 extension just a little over 1.618 (reaches up to touch the major fib of 2.786). That is a pretty encouraging sign that my counts are close.
The question obviously is will it go higher? An extension off Wave 1 to 1.236x would be around $318 (222%) and just around a sub-wave fib ext of 2.236-2.382. If it does make it that high, I would not be surprised if we get one final push to the 3.146 extension to make an ATH of around $500 before the whole thing crashes and burns to the ground like the dot com bubble.
1W
1D
4h
2h
Here is what I see right now.
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