Data Driven Analysis of Indices for the week ending 17 Dec 21
DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 17-12-21
This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management.
BANK NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364
EOD on 17-12-21 = 35618 up by -746 points or -2.06% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 37581 on 13-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 10-12-21 = 35535 on 17-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 2046 points or -5.76% from the lowest level
In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made a downward move of 1487 points or 4.01% which is a bearish sign.
NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166
EOD on 17-12-21 = 16985 up by -181 points or -1.05% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 17629 on 13-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 16966 on 17-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = -663 points or -1.91% from the lowest level
In the last one week Nifty has made a downward move of 526 points or 3.00% which is a bearish sign.
FII - DII DATA:
DEC 2021
FIIs = -26,684 Crores
DIIs = 19.487 Crores
Net is = -7,197 Crores
Based on last week’s workings, I estimate a net FII-DII selling of 12,500 Crores and the way it is posed now, it seems we may unfortunately hit the target.
Conclusion:
The FII selling is concentrated on the index heavyweights which is impacting the entire market sentiment.
DIIs have not been able to hold on to the selling pressure though they may be doing their best in terms of buying every dip. But the action of Friday 17-12 indicated that the DIIs were also not convinced that we have reached the bottom.
SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a -23 points close. This may change the moment market opens as every rise is sold in to.
BANK NIFTY
When HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank decide not to support the index, there is no way other members of the family would be able to lift the index. When these 3 are in selling mode, SBIN also joins the party and then the game turns one sided.
Bank Nifty has been oscillating between underperforming to outperforming Nifty and has been moving all over the place.
Kotak Bank has been experiencing extreme volatility as it moved from a high of 1890 on 16-12 to a low below 1800 on 17-12. That is a movement of 5% in 1 trading session which is quite a significant one.
NIFTY
The IT heavyweight Infosys could do little despite going up 5%+ in the last 2 sessions. The selling pressure was so intense that the positivity was outnumbered. In the process, Infosys managed to hit its ATH which is a good sign.
HDFC and Reliance in particular have been hammered by the FIIs and that is one of the reasons why Nifty keeps drifting on the lower end.
HDFC has fallen more than 10% from its ATH and that is not a good sign at all.
The HDFC twins and the Bajaj twins have to do a major turnaround for the indices to change the color otherwise, we will keep witnessing 1 step forward and 2-3 backwards in the coming week as well.
17630 on Nifty and 37600 on Bank Nifty are the levels that need to be overcome on a closing basis for the bulls to regain the momentum. Any close below that would keep providing intraday to swing opportunities only.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves.
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
19-12-21
This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management.
BANK NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364
EOD on 17-12-21 = 35618 up by -746 points or -2.06% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 37581 on 13-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 10-12-21 = 35535 on 17-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 2046 points or -5.76% from the lowest level
In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made a downward move of 1487 points or 4.01% which is a bearish sign.
NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166
EOD on 17-12-21 = 16985 up by -181 points or -1.05% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 17629 on 13-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 16966 on 17-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = -663 points or -1.91% from the lowest level
In the last one week Nifty has made a downward move of 526 points or 3.00% which is a bearish sign.
FII - DII DATA:
DEC 2021
FIIs = -26,684 Crores
DIIs = 19.487 Crores
Net is = -7,197 Crores
Based on last week’s workings, I estimate a net FII-DII selling of 12,500 Crores and the way it is posed now, it seems we may unfortunately hit the target.
Conclusion:
The FII selling is concentrated on the index heavyweights which is impacting the entire market sentiment.
DIIs have not been able to hold on to the selling pressure though they may be doing their best in terms of buying every dip. But the action of Friday 17-12 indicated that the DIIs were also not convinced that we have reached the bottom.
SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a -23 points close. This may change the moment market opens as every rise is sold in to.
BANK NIFTY
When HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank decide not to support the index, there is no way other members of the family would be able to lift the index. When these 3 are in selling mode, SBIN also joins the party and then the game turns one sided.
Bank Nifty has been oscillating between underperforming to outperforming Nifty and has been moving all over the place.
Kotak Bank has been experiencing extreme volatility as it moved from a high of 1890 on 16-12 to a low below 1800 on 17-12. That is a movement of 5% in 1 trading session which is quite a significant one.
NIFTY
The IT heavyweight Infosys could do little despite going up 5%+ in the last 2 sessions. The selling pressure was so intense that the positivity was outnumbered. In the process, Infosys managed to hit its ATH which is a good sign.
HDFC and Reliance in particular have been hammered by the FIIs and that is one of the reasons why Nifty keeps drifting on the lower end.
HDFC has fallen more than 10% from its ATH and that is not a good sign at all.
The HDFC twins and the Bajaj twins have to do a major turnaround for the indices to change the color otherwise, we will keep witnessing 1 step forward and 2-3 backwards in the coming week as well.
17630 on Nifty and 37600 on Bank Nifty are the levels that need to be overcome on a closing basis for the bulls to regain the momentum. Any close below that would keep providing intraday to swing opportunities only.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves.
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
19-12-21
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