Indices face Monday blues and tank miserably
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 22-11-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17796.25
H 17805.25
L 17280.45
C 17416.55
EOD --348.25 points / -1.96%
SGX Nifty 22-11-21 @ 1920h = -04 points
FII DII = Not yet available - Most likely in the big negative.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty surprisingly opened with a mild gap-up lifted by a strong gap-up of 250+ points in Bank Nifty. However, this lasted only a few seconds as the indices never even made a courtesy attempt also to bounce back.
Nifty fell relentlessly along with Bank Nifty until the last hour of the trade when some amount of buying / short-covering may have lifted it to close above 17400.
As mentioned in the weekly analysis post, supports melted like an ice cube and there was hardly any resistance except once around 17500 but that also could not be cleared.
Nifty has fallen the max in the last 2 months [from when I have started tracking OHLC data in analytical form].
On the daily charts, it is evident that Nifty has taken support from around 21 Sep 21 levels.
It is now well below the 50DMA as well.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 15
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 173
Net = -158
POSITIVES
I will not venture to hunt for any positives as on such days we should let the draggers take the pride. The only grace was that Nifty ended above 17400 and Bank Nifty above 37000.
NEGATIVES
It was a day of all the negatives such that the highest contribution by the 5th most significant lifter of Nifty is less than 1 point [Hindalco]. There cannot be a more pessimistic and negative assault on the bulls when everyone is thinking that we are in the “dream bull run” market.
TRADING RANGE FOR 23-26 November 2021
I dare not make any levels known here as Nifty and Bank Nifty are out to prove my downside levels wrong!
In my view, let the dust settle down before we look at these levels. For now, today’s low for both indices should be seen as a support area.
When a level may become a resistance level would be known only in the live market as we may now see - “Sell on every Rise” situation until major short-covering lifts the markets upwards.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Based on my chart reading, Nifty had witnessed such a massive fall on 26-02-21.
Nifty low was just around its 20 WMA and Bank Nifty close price is around its 20 WMA. This is quite a unique co-incidence.
A lot will depend on how things play out tomorrow - if the indices breach their respective 20 WMAs on a closing basis, selling pressure could get intensified further.
On an EOD basis, India Vix is up 17.9% which is a massive increase and indicates a likely continuation of extreme volatility with wild swings.
Many of the leading scrips are around key MAs. Please have a look at the charts and you may find some good opportunities.
ABSL AMC has since its listing been going down almost on a daily basis. However, it has strangely defied the sentiment is up 1% - I could find this as I have reinvested some of my gains in it with every downfall.
This sharp fall may have removed the excess froth from the market in terms of price corrections and recycling of sectors.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
22-11--21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17796.25
H 17805.25
L 17280.45
C 17416.55
EOD --348.25 points / -1.96%
SGX Nifty 22-11-21 @ 1920h = -04 points
FII DII = Not yet available - Most likely in the big negative.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty surprisingly opened with a mild gap-up lifted by a strong gap-up of 250+ points in Bank Nifty. However, this lasted only a few seconds as the indices never even made a courtesy attempt also to bounce back.
Nifty fell relentlessly along with Bank Nifty until the last hour of the trade when some amount of buying / short-covering may have lifted it to close above 17400.
As mentioned in the weekly analysis post, supports melted like an ice cube and there was hardly any resistance except once around 17500 but that also could not be cleared.
Nifty has fallen the max in the last 2 months [from when I have started tracking OHLC data in analytical form].
On the daily charts, it is evident that Nifty has taken support from around 21 Sep 21 levels.
It is now well below the 50DMA as well.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 15
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 173
Net = -158
POSITIVES
I will not venture to hunt for any positives as on such days we should let the draggers take the pride. The only grace was that Nifty ended above 17400 and Bank Nifty above 37000.
NEGATIVES
It was a day of all the negatives such that the highest contribution by the 5th most significant lifter of Nifty is less than 1 point [Hindalco]. There cannot be a more pessimistic and negative assault on the bulls when everyone is thinking that we are in the “dream bull run” market.
TRADING RANGE FOR 23-26 November 2021
I dare not make any levels known here as Nifty and Bank Nifty are out to prove my downside levels wrong!
In my view, let the dust settle down before we look at these levels. For now, today’s low for both indices should be seen as a support area.
When a level may become a resistance level would be known only in the live market as we may now see - “Sell on every Rise” situation until major short-covering lifts the markets upwards.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Based on my chart reading, Nifty had witnessed such a massive fall on 26-02-21.
Nifty low was just around its 20 WMA and Bank Nifty close price is around its 20 WMA. This is quite a unique co-incidence.
A lot will depend on how things play out tomorrow - if the indices breach their respective 20 WMAs on a closing basis, selling pressure could get intensified further.
On an EOD basis, India Vix is up 17.9% which is a massive increase and indicates a likely continuation of extreme volatility with wild swings.
Many of the leading scrips are around key MAs. Please have a look at the charts and you may find some good opportunities.
ABSL AMC has since its listing been going down almost on a daily basis. However, it has strangely defied the sentiment is up 1% - I could find this as I have reinvested some of my gains in it with every downfall.
This sharp fall may have removed the excess froth from the market in terms of price corrections and recycling of sectors.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
22-11--21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
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