Analysis techniques – Copper Futures (Dec 2025)

Analysis techniques – Copper Futures (Dec 2025)
Date: 03/10/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: HGZ25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
December copper rose slightly to 4.9610 USD/lb (+0.14%), sustaining its strong rebound from 4.49 support after a prolonged consolidation in August–September. The price has broken above short-term resistance and is approaching the psychological 5.00 mark. Medium-term structure remains bullish, targeting the key resistance zone of 5.53 – 5.90, a previous cycle high.

2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 5.53 – 5.90 – 6.00
Support: 4.90 – 4.49 – 4.21

3. Detailed Technical Analysis
Short-term trend: Breakout from the 4.49 – 4.70 base favors further upside toward 5.53.
Volume: Rising on the breakout, signaling fresh inflows.
Wave structure: Copper appears in a medium-term recovery wave (wave 3), with theoretical targets around 5.53 – 5.90 before a pullback.
Confirmation signals: Sustained closes above 5.00 would confirm momentum; failure below 4.90 risks a retracement to 4.70 – 4.49.

4. VNC View
Short term: Positive outlook as metals attract flows amid a softer USD.
Medium term: Refined copper supply disruptions in South America and persistent green demand (EVs, renewables) underpin prices.
Risks: Potential demand weakness from China could trigger volatility.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 4.95 – 5.00
TP: 5.53 – 5.90
SL: 4.90
Probability: 65%

Counter-trend Short Setup:
Entry: 5.50 – 5.53
TP: 5.20 – 4.95
SL: 5.90
Probability: 40%

6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Copper importers (Asia, Vietnam): Lock in purchases near 4.90 – 5.00 to mitigate upside risk.
Producers/sellers: Delay sales until prices approach 5.53 – 5.90 resistance for better margins.