Markets look for direction from global inflation
WEEKLY FORECAST
Markets look for direction from global inflation and economic growth data
Inflation and growth data
During the upcoming trading week global inflation and Gross Domestic Product data are heavily in focus. We see the release of Consumer Price Index numbers from the Swiss, United Kingdom, United States and Chinese economies. We also see important quarterly Gross Domestic Product data from the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and the entire eurozone economy.
This week we also see an important interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and key Retail Sales data from the US economy. The United States economy will also release monthly jobs, consumer confidence, export, import and manufacturing data.
Monday 11th February, GBP UK quarterly GDP
UK quarterly Gross Domestic Product represents the market value of all final goods and services from United Kingdom economy. Strong GDP growth is related to a healthy economy while stagnating or contracting GDP usually means that an economy has temporary or long-term economic issues. UK quarterly GDP is expected to have increased 0.6 percent during the last quarter, despite headwinds from Brexit.
• The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3000 level, key support is found at the 1.2840 and 1.2740 levels.
• If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3000 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3095 and 1.3200 levels.
Tuesday 12th February, NZD RBNZ Rate Decision
The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, published by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, represents the Central Bank Governor’s decision concerning where to set the nations interest rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. The RBNZ has kept monetary policy unchanged since November 2016 and is widely tipped to maintain the nations interest rate at 1.75 percent this week.
• The NZDUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 0.6680 level, further upside towards the 0.6780 and 0.6900 levels seems likely.
• If the NZDUSD pair moves below the 0.6680 level, sellers are likely to test towards the 0.6640 and 0.6580 support
Wednesday 13th February, USD US Consumer Price Index
The US Consumer Price Index is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and evaluates the fluctuations in the cost of living by measuring the changes in prices consumers pay for a set of items. In terms of an inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index is the most obvious way to quantify fluctuations in purchasing power, although the Federal Reserve relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary means to determine whether inflation is occurring.
• The USDJPY pair is bullish while trading above the 110.00 level, key resistance is found at the 110.40 and 110.90 levels.
• If the USDJPY pair moves below the 109.60 level, sellers will likely test towards the 109.10 and 108.60 support levels.
Thursday 14th February, EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index
The eurozone Consumer Price Index, released by Eurostat measures the changes in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. A higher value of the CPI represents significant inflationary pressures in the eurozone economies and also puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. CPI data may not affect the markets significantly because CPI is the European Central Bank's mandated inflation target.
• The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.1410 level, key resistance is then found at the 1.1460 and 1.1550 levels.
• If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1300 level, sellers will likely test towards the 1.1215 and 1.1180 support levels.
Friday 15th February, CNY Chinese Consumer Price Index
The Chinese Consumer Price Index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, measures the change in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. The Consumer Price Index is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends. CPI is also one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation.
• The AUDUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 0.7220 level, further upside towards 0.7280 and 0.7345 levels remains possible.
• If the AUDUSD pair trades below the 0.7000 level, sellers are likely to test the 0.6930 and 0.6880 support levels.
Markets look for direction from global inflation and economic growth data
Inflation and growth data
During the upcoming trading week global inflation and Gross Domestic Product data are heavily in focus. We see the release of Consumer Price Index numbers from the Swiss, United Kingdom, United States and Chinese economies. We also see important quarterly Gross Domestic Product data from the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and the entire eurozone economy.
This week we also see an important interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and key Retail Sales data from the US economy. The United States economy will also release monthly jobs, consumer confidence, export, import and manufacturing data.
Monday 11th February, GBP UK quarterly GDP
UK quarterly Gross Domestic Product represents the market value of all final goods and services from United Kingdom economy. Strong GDP growth is related to a healthy economy while stagnating or contracting GDP usually means that an economy has temporary or long-term economic issues. UK quarterly GDP is expected to have increased 0.6 percent during the last quarter, despite headwinds from Brexit.
• The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3000 level, key support is found at the 1.2840 and 1.2740 levels.
• If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3000 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3095 and 1.3200 levels.
Tuesday 12th February, NZD RBNZ Rate Decision
The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, published by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, represents the Central Bank Governor’s decision concerning where to set the nations interest rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. The RBNZ has kept monetary policy unchanged since November 2016 and is widely tipped to maintain the nations interest rate at 1.75 percent this week.
• The NZDUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 0.6680 level, further upside towards the 0.6780 and 0.6900 levels seems likely.
• If the NZDUSD pair moves below the 0.6680 level, sellers are likely to test towards the 0.6640 and 0.6580 support
Wednesday 13th February, USD US Consumer Price Index
The US Consumer Price Index is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and evaluates the fluctuations in the cost of living by measuring the changes in prices consumers pay for a set of items. In terms of an inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index is the most obvious way to quantify fluctuations in purchasing power, although the Federal Reserve relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary means to determine whether inflation is occurring.
• The USDJPY pair is bullish while trading above the 110.00 level, key resistance is found at the 110.40 and 110.90 levels.
• If the USDJPY pair moves below the 109.60 level, sellers will likely test towards the 109.10 and 108.60 support levels.
Thursday 14th February, EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index
The eurozone Consumer Price Index, released by Eurostat measures the changes in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. A higher value of the CPI represents significant inflationary pressures in the eurozone economies and also puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. CPI data may not affect the markets significantly because CPI is the European Central Bank's mandated inflation target.
• The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.1410 level, key resistance is then found at the 1.1460 and 1.1550 levels.
• If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1300 level, sellers will likely test towards the 1.1215 and 1.1180 support levels.
Friday 15th February, CNY Chinese Consumer Price Index
The Chinese Consumer Price Index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, measures the change in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. The Consumer Price Index is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends. CPI is also one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation.
• The AUDUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 0.7220 level, further upside towards 0.7280 and 0.7345 levels remains possible.
• If the AUDUSD pair trades below the 0.7000 level, sellers are likely to test the 0.6930 and 0.6880 support levels.
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