EURUSD 25 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP / Jobless
This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
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2.
3.
4.
15m Chart Analysis
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2.
3.
- Market Sentiment
- 4H Chart Analysis
- 15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
- Euro's recent strength: The Euro has gained some ground against the USD lately, fueled by weaker US data and supporting the Pullback Phase after the YTD lows.
- US data as a game changer: The upcoming US GDP and Jobless Claims reports are the main event. Strong numbers could significantly strengthen the USD, reversing the Euro's recent gains.
- Cautious market: Investors are holding back until the data is released, creating a wait-and-see sentiment that could limit the Euro's upside potential specially with US PCE Inflation Report tomorrow.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
- Swing Bearish
- Internal Bearish
- INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
- Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
- After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
- With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
- Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
4.
- As price reached the 4H Supply with Bullish OF, price showed a bearish reaction as expected to facilitate a Pullback to recent Demand.
- Price tapped into the 4H Demand and currently in the momentum to create a new high.
- As indicated previously, the Liquidity on the left above the 4H Supply and possibly the Swing EQ are the targets.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
- Swing Bullish
- Internal Bullish
- Long: Phase A
- Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS)
2.
- Price mitigation to the 4H Demand.
3.
- Price turned bullish after mitigating the 4H Demand turning INT structure to Bullish.
- With INT structure is Bullish, expectations are set that we are going to target the Weak Swing High.
- But be mindful that we are still within the 4H Supply Zone that is partially mitigated yesterday so Phase A2 after the BOS will be tough. But Phase C will be applicable if we have a Bearish iBOS.
