Morning Update: Let the Hunger Games Begin !
Aktualisiert
You may not feel like a "tribute" but make no mistake, we're all competing in the SPX hunger games now.
With The Fed having concluded it's last FOMC of '22, it would appear they're are more factors at play for prices to decline, than rally. One of them being, tax related selling. Therefore it appears momentum is (or has) shifted and the bears may start to take control of price as soon as today.
Below is the micro count, where as, if this decline ONLY takes an ideal shape, my target is 3830. If my primary count is correct, then today we're in wave 3 of "a" down and that means we should be down 100-120 (+) points today. If black is playing out we should get a pause in our decline around the 3884 level at the 1.382 Fib Support area...and then continue (unless this shapes up to a 3-wave "a" wave).
Additionally, since we have not breached 3956 yet, I can not rule out only OML, and a trip back to 4100 for a wave 2, before our wave 3 decline takes place. This alternate count is represented above in purple. On CPI day, I made a comment right before I started building my short position, that the way this pattern started out told me it was corrective. I draw your attention to that comment only to say, sometimes the price pattern gives us clues. Albeit subtle, but clues help us solve the price pattern puzzle. I will reiterate, we have a topping pattern underway today. Whether this pattern is a 5-wave "a" wave, or a 3-wave "a" wave....regardless of how this completes (we're either in wave 3 or a c wave down. Those tend to be the strongest portions of the pattern.
Last night I was able to sell -15 ES 4100 Dec EOM calls for enough (if I'm successful and they expire) to get my December to close out slightly profitable. It is definitely not the outcome I anticipated...but that means I'm done trading for the rest of 2022.
The last thing I will remind you of today, is the red count. Again, this is not my primary or secondary count, but it is still a possibility. That chart is below.
Again, over the last week, I mentioned about buying the market as it declines and to be weary of that temptation. Understand that price is in a precarious position. If the pattern plays out like I am expecting in my black count, they're will be buying opportunities next month that are sustainable. I'm not talking about scalping. To get in front of what I think is starting today...is a kin to a freight train.
I wouldn't recommend it.
Best to all,
Chris
With The Fed having concluded it's last FOMC of '22, it would appear they're are more factors at play for prices to decline, than rally. One of them being, tax related selling. Therefore it appears momentum is (or has) shifted and the bears may start to take control of price as soon as today.
Below is the micro count, where as, if this decline ONLY takes an ideal shape, my target is 3830. If my primary count is correct, then today we're in wave 3 of "a" down and that means we should be down 100-120 (+) points today. If black is playing out we should get a pause in our decline around the 3884 level at the 1.382 Fib Support area...and then continue (unless this shapes up to a 3-wave "a" wave).
Additionally, since we have not breached 3956 yet, I can not rule out only OML, and a trip back to 4100 for a wave 2, before our wave 3 decline takes place. This alternate count is represented above in purple. On CPI day, I made a comment right before I started building my short position, that the way this pattern started out told me it was corrective. I draw your attention to that comment only to say, sometimes the price pattern gives us clues. Albeit subtle, but clues help us solve the price pattern puzzle. I will reiterate, we have a topping pattern underway today. Whether this pattern is a 5-wave "a" wave, or a 3-wave "a" wave....regardless of how this completes (we're either in wave 3 or a c wave down. Those tend to be the strongest portions of the pattern.
Last night I was able to sell -15 ES 4100 Dec EOM calls for enough (if I'm successful and they expire) to get my December to close out slightly profitable. It is definitely not the outcome I anticipated...but that means I'm done trading for the rest of 2022.
The last thing I will remind you of today, is the red count. Again, this is not my primary or secondary count, but it is still a possibility. That chart is below.
Again, over the last week, I mentioned about buying the market as it declines and to be weary of that temptation. Understand that price is in a precarious position. If the pattern plays out like I am expecting in my black count, they're will be buying opportunities next month that are sustainable. I'm not talking about scalping. To get in front of what I think is starting today...is a kin to a freight train.
I wouldn't recommend it.
Best to all,
Chris
Kommentar
Unless price takes a path NOT OUTLINED above...I will be off the desk till Monday 12/19 getting things ready for January 3rd. I will try to to answer DM's and comments to this post.Thanks,
Chris
Kommentar
Now down 100 points...can we see 120?Kommentar
...and there's down 120.
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