The daily trend has softened following the formation of a lower high. Analysis of the 4-hour chart indicates a bounce that encountered resistance near the 6860–6870 range, subsequently retreating to the 6810 support level. As we look ahead to tomorrow's trading, consider the 6805–6808 range as the key intraday “threshold” while the 6830–6835 zone will serve as the first significant resistance level to watch.
Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1; NY KZ 09:30–11:00 & 13:30–16:00 ET)
1. Acceptance long from support
Trigger: 15m holds S1 6805–6808 → 5m reclaim 6823 VWAP → 5m close above 6830.
Entry: 6831–6834 on first 1m HL after the 5m re-close.
SL: 6821 (hard) or 15m trigger-wick −0.25–0.50 pt.
TP1: 6856–6861 (≥2R gate).
TP2: 6870–6873.
TP3: 6890–6895 if squeeze.
Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trail before TP2.
2. Rejection fade short from resistance
Trigger: Pop into 6856–6861, stall, then 5m full-body re-close back below 6856 with 1m LH.
Entry: 6850–6854.
SL: 6864.25 (hard) or 15m wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6830–6832.
TP2: 6823 VWAP.
TP3: 6805–6808.
Note: If 5m re-claims 6861 after entry, exit early; setup invalid.
3. Breakdown continuation short
Trigger: 5m body close below 6805 with retest fail from beneath.
Entry: 6800–6803.
SL: 6810.75 (hard) or 15m wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6790–6795.
TP2: 6768–6772.
TP3: 6747–6752.
Note: If reclaim and 5m closes back above 6808, cancel.
4. Breakout continuation long
Trigger: 5m acceptance above 6861 and hold on retest.
Entry: 6862–6865 on first 1m HL.
SL: 6853.25.
TP1: 6870–6873.
TP2: 6885–6890.
TP3: 6905–6912.
Note: If acceptance fails (5m body back under 6861), flip bias back to fade R3.
Event map for Thursday (ET)
FOMC meeting Day 1 (runs Thu–Fri; Fed is not affected).
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage 10:30.
Most BLS/DOL macro releases (e.g., Productivity & Costs, Weekly Jobless Claims) are suspended during the shutdown. Expect fewer 8:30 prints and thinner liquidity until the cash open.
Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1; NY KZ 09:30–11:00 & 13:30–16:00 ET)
1. Acceptance long from support
Trigger: 15m holds S1 6805–6808 → 5m reclaim 6823 VWAP → 5m close above 6830.
Entry: 6831–6834 on first 1m HL after the 5m re-close.
SL: 6821 (hard) or 15m trigger-wick −0.25–0.50 pt.
TP1: 6856–6861 (≥2R gate).
TP2: 6870–6873.
TP3: 6890–6895 if squeeze.
Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trail before TP2.
2. Rejection fade short from resistance
Trigger: Pop into 6856–6861, stall, then 5m full-body re-close back below 6856 with 1m LH.
Entry: 6850–6854.
SL: 6864.25 (hard) or 15m wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6830–6832.
TP2: 6823 VWAP.
TP3: 6805–6808.
Note: If 5m re-claims 6861 after entry, exit early; setup invalid.
3. Breakdown continuation short
Trigger: 5m body close below 6805 with retest fail from beneath.
Entry: 6800–6803.
SL: 6810.75 (hard) or 15m wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6790–6795.
TP2: 6768–6772.
TP3: 6747–6752.
Note: If reclaim and 5m closes back above 6808, cancel.
4. Breakout continuation long
Trigger: 5m acceptance above 6861 and hold on retest.
Entry: 6862–6865 on first 1m HL.
SL: 6853.25.
TP1: 6870–6873.
TP2: 6885–6890.
TP3: 6905–6912.
Note: If acceptance fails (5m body back under 6861), flip bias back to fade R3.
Event map for Thursday (ET)
FOMC meeting Day 1 (runs Thu–Fri; Fed is not affected).
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage 10:30.
Most BLS/DOL macro releases (e.g., Productivity & Costs, Weekly Jobless Claims) are suspended during the shutdown. Expect fewer 8:30 prints and thinner liquidity until the cash open.
If you want to contact me Email: info@algoindex.com or algoindex.com
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If you want to contact me Email: info@algoindex.com or algoindex.com
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.