January Forecast - Continue the rally ?
Technically, DXY is still in bullish momentum. As long as the price stays above the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, I reckon DXY will give one more push to visit 97.7. However, a price breakout and close below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement indicate that DXY will fall deeper to retest the 50% Fib.
What we know so far, Powell signals rate hikes and balance sheet runoff, but yields hold steady, CPI 0.5% and Core CPI 0.6%, U.S. jobless claims rise by 23,000 to 230,000.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close below 38.20% Fibonacci retracement
Catalyst:
- U.S. Sales data
- Manufacturing Index
- Unemployment claims
What we know so far, Powell signals rate hikes and balance sheet runoff, but yields hold steady, CPI 0.5% and Core CPI 0.6%, U.S. jobless claims rise by 23,000 to 230,000.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close below 38.20% Fibonacci retracement
Catalyst:
- U.S. Sales data
- Manufacturing Index
- Unemployment claims
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