BTC: Is the 2020-21 bull run nearly over?

NOTE: I'm not posting this because I have insight. Rather, I'm posting it in the hope that someone with insight can share it in comments.

I'm trying to understand this chart, and the significance for crypto.

At the broadest level, when the DXY goes up, it's not great for crypto. We can see very clearly how a fall in the DXY seems to correlate with crypto bull runs. Conversely, when the DXY goes up, we appear to experience crypto bear markets.

This chart is only considering the period from 2014 until now. But it seems plausible that we might see a repeat of the last major fractal .

There is a marginal difference (about 1%) in how far the DXY dropped in February 2019 compared to December 2020). But we seem very close to an EMA crossover to the upside, which would then suggest a major hike, similar to May 2018 to March 2020.

What would this mean for BTC's bull run?

It is true that the 2016-2017 BTC bull run stopped short of the full bottom of the DXY . Was this because alts took over in the 2017 alt season?

If so, given that alts (aside from a couple of exceptions, like ADA, along with newer projects, like ENJ , THETA, CHZ , etc) really haven't gone parabolic in this present BTC bull run (i.e., BTC did not pull them with it), does the bottom coming in of DXY suggest there won't be a 2017-like "alt season" at all?

Alternatively, is the bottom for DXY really in, or is this a mid-downside rally before DXY drops further?

I should add: I can't explain why BTC has continued its bull run from the January ATH even though the DXY was clearly going up. Again, I really hope someone can offer insight.

This said, it appears to me, despite epic ATH price predictions, that BTC's momentum has slowed significantly. The February-March correction has been truncated into two sections, unlike January. The whole thing has taken much longer. And the fact that BTC found very strong resistance when trying to continue to the upside after reaching a new ATH should give us pause, even though, in my view, the massive W formation BTC printed was calling to be completed at the neckline, which is more or less where BTC is right now.

Continued bearish divergence on the weekly RSI is also a concern.

My main questions:

1) Have we actually seen the top of the BTC 2020-21 bull run?
2) Does this chart suggest there will be no 2017-like alt season?

Please comment.

Kommentar:

30 Mar 2021 17:37:52: I want to add here an excellent chart by @TradingShot as a counterpoint to my simplistic analysis. As can be seem in the monthly EMAs, a bullish scenario (which a repeat of the fractal in my chart would be) seems not only unlikely, but perhaps even impossible. If a death cross is coming on the monthly timescale, and if what the DXY is doing now is simply a retracement on a deeper downswing, the BTC bull run could go on for much longer than I imagined. Looking at charts is both obligatory, but maddening. We think we see something of interest only to have it contradicted on a different timescale.

Kommentar:

31 Mar 2021 15:20:32: Interesting to watch today's rapid drop from $59.8k to $56.7k, touching the 10 EMA on the daily chart. The last time BTC did this kind of liquidity grab during an upside movement was 8 February when, curiously enough, TSLA announced its $1.5bn BTC buy. While there was a long wick as BTC passed the 0.786 of the Fibonacci retracement on the 21 February downside impulse (10 March), BTC today had to make this grab even as it only touched the 0.786, which it hasn't yet broken through. BTC is losing momentum on the macro level. Perhaps this relates to the strengthening DXY. In other news, the low from the previous ATH came in at around the 0.5 Fibonacci of the 21 February downside impulse, so we can probably expect that the next lowest low from BTC's hike to $65k, which should be its next higher high, will be $56k.