🍫 Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup
Direction: Long Bias
Contract: Cocoa (NY / ICE)
Current Price: ~7,437
🔍 Technical Setup
Price has been consolidating after the sharp run-up and has now pulled back into a key long-term trendline (yellow support).
A downtrend channel breakout is forming – if price clears this, it opens the door to a relief rally.
I’m looking for price to push back toward the 8,500–9,000 zone as a first target (previous structure resistance).
EMA cross (9 vs 19) is flattening, signaling potential shift in momentum.
📊 COT & Sentiment
Speculators remain net long in cocoa, reflecting continued bullish sentiment.
Commercials (hedgers) are still short, but that’s typical for producers – nothing extreme.
Fundamentals remain tight:
Black pod disease in Cameroon hitting yields.
Stockpiles in London/NY at multi-year lows.
Consumer demand holding up despite high prices.
This alignment supports a bullish recovery if technicals confirm.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Current levels around 7,400–7,500, scaling in on confirmation.
Target 1: 8,500 (previous resistance zone).
Target 2: 9,000+ if momentum extends.
Stop Loss: Below 7,000 to protect against breakdown.
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 setup.
⚠️ Risks
Stronger-than-expected supply recovery in Ivory Coast/Ghana.
Weak grind demand data (sign of demand destruction).
Speculators cutting long positions aggressively.
✅ Conclusion
Cocoa has pulled back into long-term support, with positioning and fundamentals still supportive of higher prices. If the descending trendline breaks, I’m positioning for a long swing toward 8,500–9,000.
This cocoa strategy has a profitability rate of 66% and average 9.4% gain on a long position.
Direction: Long Bias
Contract: Cocoa (NY / ICE)
Current Price: ~7,437
🔍 Technical Setup
Price has been consolidating after the sharp run-up and has now pulled back into a key long-term trendline (yellow support).
A downtrend channel breakout is forming – if price clears this, it opens the door to a relief rally.
I’m looking for price to push back toward the 8,500–9,000 zone as a first target (previous structure resistance).
EMA cross (9 vs 19) is flattening, signaling potential shift in momentum.
📊 COT & Sentiment
Speculators remain net long in cocoa, reflecting continued bullish sentiment.
Commercials (hedgers) are still short, but that’s typical for producers – nothing extreme.
Fundamentals remain tight:
Black pod disease in Cameroon hitting yields.
Stockpiles in London/NY at multi-year lows.
Consumer demand holding up despite high prices.
This alignment supports a bullish recovery if technicals confirm.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Current levels around 7,400–7,500, scaling in on confirmation.
Target 1: 8,500 (previous resistance zone).
Target 2: 9,000+ if momentum extends.
Stop Loss: Below 7,000 to protect against breakdown.
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 setup.
⚠️ Risks
Stronger-than-expected supply recovery in Ivory Coast/Ghana.
Weak grind demand data (sign of demand destruction).
Speculators cutting long positions aggressively.
✅ Conclusion
Cocoa has pulled back into long-term support, with positioning and fundamentals still supportive of higher prices. If the descending trendline breaks, I’m positioning for a long swing toward 8,500–9,000.
This cocoa strategy has a profitability rate of 66% and average 9.4% gain on a long position.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.