BTC may drop to the 4800 zone

My trade idea on the BTC/USDT chart. The idea is that BTC must hold the 55 EMA, 4hr or else I see it dropping to the 200 EMA/ 0.382 fib zone around 4800. If BTC is able to climb up to 5400, then this idea would be invalid.

We should see over the next few days if this idea becomes a reality.