We left this overnight waiting for the 4th break lower to hopefully develop a to show loss of downside
momentum and looking for the rally to recommence from there. Interestingly - for some at least - the low was actually
also the tiniest of gaps which was created (green arrow) on exit of the last smaller continuation pattern from the night
before last - so small...but it got filled precisiely. So the tiniest of gaps was not 'forgotten' - Bitcoin came back and
painstakingly filled that gap, and then with the crack in the wall filled, it moved on up again. Where this kind of
behaviour is quite normal in a major market index like the Dow (which closes each day to create gaps) it is highly
unusual in Bitcoin (it never closes, so why should there ever be a gap?) But the gap is there, small but clearly. And
Bitcoin just had to fill it.
Since then it has rallied 800 points back to test 8332 resistance line and is once more consolidating. Price action is
quite subdued though - it did get bought in London again but not aggressively. So now it's coming back towards the dynamic
in a three or four-wave move most likely which can be bought again if not long again already on exit of the upper small
parallel for rally back to 8332-8350 and then, once passed, to 8550-8650 range. Bitcoin has to break above 8650 for the next
part of the rally to take shape and to follow for higher prices still ahead.
On the downside the dynamic running under the lows overnight must hold up to all challenges from here. Any
failure will be the first big hint today that upward momentum is waning here- not much buying intent so far...so this is not
not particularly strong yet, but also the decline overnight was not a collapse as it could have been - so it's pretty neutral
right now but still with an upward bias. However should the rising dynamic under price fail today at
any point look for the same type of pattern emerging as yesterday when it lost the parallel then...a rally back to
underside of the same line and then, eventually, failure. If we see this type of price action develop it can be shorted with
stops above the line. But until then we can look to buy this next next dip to the dynamic with stops under the line.
So far this price action is impressive...unwinding between the two lines - can follow if it breaks the high today for 8925 initially and higher - otherwise we can wait for lower prices off the dynamic below
Same as Bitfinex really
Unwinding at the top with a litttle pennant forming so far...camn buy the break out with stops under 8430 if we see it happen - otherwise we wait for lower prices off the rising dynamic below
Bitcoin This is making the same pattern today and overnight as yesterday...still...which is disconcerting. The break has failed and shouldalready be stopped out by now at not far below the entry level. (For newer traders all these breaks require a stop below the parallel or fixed support that it breaks below or above - in case of a failed break).
So look what happened yestserday - it doesn't have to be repeat but it's a good example and fresh in our minds enough to know and recognise the signs from here....but the alternative is to come back to 8332 line here on Coinbase where the fixed and dynamic meet and then to rally away from there - or even better for the bull case to stay strong now it can still make a getaway from here and if so will have to follow but looking for a problem potentially at the day's highs again- but right now it's made another bigger double top - beware if still long ...it can still make a getaway from here but you need a plan B. And on downside, if the lower big rising parallel breaks today maybe look to short if set up to do so - look at how it failed yesterday - a near perfect example to follow (sometimes there is no retest, so some traders will short on first break with stops above by 100 points or so and risk it.Others will wait for the retest, and therefore in fast market, lose part of the trade or miss it completely - these are choices only you can make, obviously)