Bitcoin Doomsday Vs. 100k + Rampage. Here's How

20. Aug. 2021

Hey Everyone! Thanks for dropping in to see how bitcoin can crash to sub 29k or break up to 100k + Targets. In this quick summary I'll give you my bias and a break down of the invalidations of these two paths. Let's dive in!

Count 1 is the 1,2,1,2 impulse wave to the upside. This count gets invalidated if we break under 44k.
The likelihood of this count coming to fruition increases when we break over 51k.

Count 2 is the pink ABC, which connect to the downside with the red arrow and would take us sub 29k low. This count increases in probability by getting rejected in our current box under 51k and then having price fall to 44k, and is looking extremely strong under 37.5k. This count gets invalidated when price extends above 51k and 100% invalidation is at 56.4k.

My current bias is the ABC that doesn't get above 51k. As such, I've taken profit on mid term/long term holdings in this critical zone. If we break up, I'll add them back in with a missed opportunity cost of about 10-12%.

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*DROP A COMMENT ON WHICH COUNT YOU THINK WILL PLAY OUT*

27. Aug. 2021

Anmerkung

Impulse has been invalidated for the 1,2,1,2. Our bias of the C wave playing out so far, but it can also be treated as a leading diagonal, although that's not my bias. As such, we'll be cautious of any heavy bounces, otherwise expecting impulse down. Will update if that changes.

31. Aug. 2021

Anmerkung

We had a nice start to an impulse down, but it turned to a zigzag and now a complex correction, as such, i'm expecting a larger flat or zigzag to play out right now. Market structure is intact for bulls, no LL's (lower lows) yet and the rejection seems to be fairly controlled and not aggressive.

23. Aug. 2022

Anmerkung

It's great to look back at this count and see where it shifted. Great way to familiarize yourself with market structure shifts. The biggest signal here was the sideways flat after the diagonal 5 waves.

The diagonal comes off as an Ending diagonal of a potential C wave, but when it doesn't get the harsh rejection for the orange arrow to follow the 5 waves quickly shift to the "start of something" bias instead as sideways consolidation after such a move demand. We got a week 5 wave move to follow for the impulse and can even be argued that it's simply an ABC, otherwise we continued to hold the potential to reach the 100k target initially talked about until we started to show topping structure and reversal signals on multiple time frames as we swept the previous ATH.

Do you see where the sideways flat shifted probability to the upside? How would you have reacted to this data at the time. These are great questions to ask to test your current system and ensure you have consistency in how you make decisions and navigate the market.