Here we have BTC/USD on the 4H chart.
Price recently began a corrective move to the downside after a strong upside move. Since price has been correcting, there has been a gentle down move which I suspect will not have much steam behind it.
At this present moment, there is 2 major levels I have in mind for BTC/USD for a correction. We would prefer see the correction higher as this increases the likelihood of the up trend continuing, and I have a few areas in mind. I am now putting my bets on the correction ending at latest, at 14495
The correction levels I am expecting price to hit are:
- 15170 - This is the preferred correction level as this would mean price was supporting on the 20 moving average. On the previous large cyclic move, price supported on the 50. This support on the 20 moving average implies that price could be preparing for the up move, using the 20 moving average as a launch pad.
- 14350 - A correction to 14350 would be the most likely in terms of probability and trend integrity. 14350 is the level which coincides with a sideways support channel and also a key Fibonacci support retracement level. This would be an excellent launch pad for price action to prepare for the new big up move.
A move to 14350 would be a steeper correction, but it would retest a major structure level at the same time. I personally want to see price land on the 20 moving average and get aggressive (Which might be possible with Bitcoin futures around) but I won't count on it. I will watch the chart and trade what I see and not what I think.
I will be updating this analysis as it progresses.
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