infbp22

BTC: whats next?

Long
KRAKEN:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Well then! That was quite a blast through supposed resistance at 7300. I did have a small short get stopped out, but it happens! Re-evaluating the chart, what I should have focused on was that we had broken through the descending resistance line on the 4 hr chart and successfully retested it. We were also at the bottom of the channel and maintaining support there.

From this movement, and in the past, we have clear resistance at 7800. For now it still looks bullish, as we have broken mid-channel resistance and it is now being used as support. We can trade in this range, give or take 2.5-3.5% on BTC, maybe 4-6% on ETH, between the mid channel support and 7800 resistance.

I will be looking for the formation of a bullish ascending triangle. This is one of my favorite bullish patterns. If we continue to test 7800 and establish higher lows, we will likely break out again, possibly to the next major FIB around 8500. Any other pattern, like a pennant, could be 50/50 on whether it breaks up or down.

I have been curious how the market will react as we approach halving. My thought was either a dump leading up to the halving, then growth afterwards, or a large bull run followed by a dump after the halving happens. I'm beginning to think we may see the latter. If we do bull run up to the halving date, I will definitely move back to cash just in case before it happens.
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