Highly doubt we close any significant candles above monthly open/close from Oct/Nov at about 9165 soon. Likely to continue consolidating below that level for a few weeks. If we get above that I will look to buy dips and sell and the levels mentioned below.
Weekly resistance at 8700 and 9550. Monthly at 9165 and 10735.
Although there are some potential bullish trend signals on monthly weekly and daily, PA and MacD on daily suggest a short term top and continued ranging/downside before the higher time frame bullish signals play out.
I am not expecting price to get back above 10700 monthly resistance until much later this year, if at all. A wick above is not impossible, but I plan to sell that area if we get back to it. Getting back to that level within the next 1-2 months would be too soon and bearish in my opinion.
Yearly - purple
Monthly - white
Weekly - Orange
That being said, as long as price stays above 7400 I would expect to see a weekly close above 11500 later this year. Weekly bearish divergence in the 14000-16000 area seems most likely long term. I will be watching this area for those signals if price gets up there. I do not expect a breakout to new highs above 20k, but the market can change my mind.
One more thrust down that fails to drop price below 7400 would be a very bullish signal for the following 4-6 months at least.
Summary: This is not a buy or sell call. This is a journal of thoughts on how the BTC market is likely to move. I expect some ranging below 10700 and above 7400 for the majority of the year. A new high above 20k seems unlikely. I would be interested in shorting bearish divergence in the 14000 to 16000 range if we reach it near the end of this year. I will endeavor to let this guide my trading decisions, but remember to let the market change my mind if this thesis proves wrong.
Also I have started a major swing position in XRP against the USD.
Look for analysis on that soon
Daily -
Weekly -
-
Weekly resistance at 8700 and 9550. Monthly at 9165 and 10735.
Although there are some potential bullish trend signals on monthly weekly and daily, PA and MacD on daily suggest a short term top and continued ranging/downside before the higher time frame bullish signals play out.
I am not expecting price to get back above 10700 monthly resistance until much later this year, if at all. A wick above is not impossible, but I plan to sell that area if we get back to it. Getting back to that level within the next 1-2 months would be too soon and bearish in my opinion.
Yearly - purple
Monthly - white
Weekly - Orange
That being said, as long as price stays above 7400 I would expect to see a weekly close above 11500 later this year. Weekly bearish divergence in the 14000-16000 area seems most likely long term. I will be watching this area for those signals if price gets up there. I do not expect a breakout to new highs above 20k, but the market can change my mind.
One more thrust down that fails to drop price below 7400 would be a very bullish signal for the following 4-6 months at least.
Summary: This is not a buy or sell call. This is a journal of thoughts on how the BTC market is likely to move. I expect some ranging below 10700 and above 7400 for the majority of the year. A new high above 20k seems unlikely. I would be interested in shorting bearish divergence in the 14000 to 16000 range if we reach it near the end of this year. I will endeavor to let this guide my trading decisions, but remember to let the market change my mind if this thesis proves wrong.
Also I have started a major swing position in XRP against the USD.
Look for analysis on that soon
Daily -
Weekly -