XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details

6. Jan.

Happy New Year Traders! Gold surged, reaching a daily peak above $2,060, propelled by a nearly 1% decline in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield on Friday. This movement was triggered by a mixed bag of macroeconomic data releases from the US, intensifying the rally for XAU/USD.

The safe-haven asset exhibited notable volatility following the release of the mixed US economic data, revealing a robust US labor market but a weaker service sector. As a response, markets swiftly recalibrated their dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed), shifting to higher odds of an earlier initiation of the easing cycle.

In December, the US labor market delivered an impressive performance, highlighted by the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which surpassed expectations by adding 216,000 jobs. This figure not only exceeded the consensus prediction of 170,000 jobs but also marked a significant improvement from the previous month's addition of 173,000 jobs. Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings experienced a monthly increase of 0.4%, surpassing the forecasted 0.3%, and maintaining pace with the previous month. The Unemployment Rate for December remained stable at 3.7%, slightly lower than the anticipated 3.8%.

On the flip side, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI for December recorded a decline to 50.6, falling short of the market expectation of 52.6 and underperforming the previous figure of 52.7. This decline in the US Dollar potentially curtailed the downside for Gold for the remaining session.

As we look ahead to the upcoming week, what are our expectations?

XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.

The $2,035 zone will be our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then a continued buying pressure above this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if price action drops below the $2,035 level and selling pressure persists below the zone, we could witness renewed selling pressure.

Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Stay informed for strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼

Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.

It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.

Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.

Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.

8. Jan.

Anmerkung

The week kicked off on a bearish note, with the bullish momentum showing signs of exhaustion. The lingering uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate-cut trajectory held traders back from making bold directional moves. As expectations for an aggressive policy easing by the Fed diminished, market participants seem to be adjusting their positions in light of a resilient US economy and hawkish remarks from key FOMC members.

This adjustment has led to sustained higher US Treasury bond yields, providing a tailwind for the US Dollar while exerting downward pressure on Gold prices on the first day of the week. However, a softer risk tone in the market might act as a mitigating factor, helping to limit potential losses.

Amid this dynamic backdrop, we've identified new structures on the 1-hour time frame. This will serve as a crucial benchmark guiding our trading activities today.

Good Morning.

8. Jan.

Trade ist aktiv

UPDATE

Sell position triggered

9. Jan.

Trade wurde manuell geschlossen

After being pulled out of the sell position from yesterday, Gold has witnessed a resurgence in buying pressure, reclaiming positive territories during the Asian session. The US Dollar is maintaining its pullback, driven by an improved market sentiment and a modest uptick in US Treasury bond yields. The dip in US Consumer Inflation Expectations heightens expectations that the Federal Reserve might initiate interest rate cuts as early as March, acting as a supportive tailwind for safe-haven assets like Gold.

Currently, market participants appear cautious and may opt to await the latest US consumer inflation figures for insights into potential future Fed policy moves before determining the near-term trajectory. This cautious stance is warranted, particularly as we position for a potential recovery from Monday's near three-week low.

In navigating this landscape, the levels identified in the 1-hour timeframe continue to serve as our guiding benchmarks, shaping our trading activities for today's session.

Good Morning.

9. Jan.

Trade geschlossen: Stop wurde erreicht

#XAUUSD

UPDATE

Stop-loss hit❌

Anticipate re-entry

9. Jan.

Anmerkung

#XAUUSD

[UPDATED STRUCTURE - considering selling opportunities]

10. Jan.

Trade ist aktiv

After exiting the buy position with a loss yesterday, Gold is struggling to gain traction.

The reduced likelihood of a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve in 2024 is bolstering higher US Treasury bond yields, consequently acting as a supportive factor for the US Dollar and diverting capital away from safe-haven assets.

Despite these challenges, Gold may find some support from ongoing geopolitical risks tied to the Israel-Hamas conflict and persistent concerns about a sluggish economic recovery in China, the world's second-largest economy. Traders, adopting a cautious approach, are holding back from making fresh directional commitments, awaiting the release of the latest Consumer Inflation figures from the United States scheduled for Thursday. The outcome of the US CPI report will shape expectations regarding the Fed's future policy actions, influencing USD demand and, subsequently, determining the short-term trajectory for Gold. While my bias leans towards a bullish stance, it's vital to acknowledge the potential for selling pressure below the $2,027 zone, opening up opportunities for selling positions. We will delve into these intricacies comprehensively during our upcoming live session.

Good Morning

11. Jan.

Trade ist aktiv

Gold appears to rebound during the Asian session, finding renewed demand around the 2,020/2,027 region. This resurgence in gold buying is partly due to repositioning trades ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures, which are weighing on the US Dollar and supporting the safe haven asset. Geopolitical tensions from the Israel-Hamas conflict and concerns about a sluggish recovery in China are also keeping the price of safe-haven Gold stable. Additionally, comments from New York Fed President John Williams yesterday suggest that US interest rates will need to remain high for a while, leading investors to scale back their expectations for a Fed rate cut in March. This has resulted in elevated US Treasury bond yields, which may discourage fresh bullish bets on safe-haven assets like Gold. As a result, market participants may opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of key US data, which could provide clarity on the Fed's rate-cut path. A stronger US CPI print today is expected to give the Fed more flexibility to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, potentially strengthening the US Dollar and causing XAU/USD to break through the previous low. In light of these factors, the levels indicated on the 1-hour timeframe are going to guide our decisions during today's trading session.

Good Morning.

11. Jan.

Trade ist aktiv

The market turns volatile as CPI data comes in beyond expectations! The appeal for Gold may fade slightly as confidence over the Fed reducing interest rates in March waned a bit after higher inflation data. In this regard, we shall have a wider stop-loss on the buy position [to curtail the volatility] while price action remains above the demand zone identified on the chart as market participants digest the implication of the data released. Lower lows and lower highs on a lower timeframe will be the only good confirmation for selling opportunities at this juncture.

12. Jan.

Trade ist aktiv

After experiencing three setbacks in our previous buy positions this week, XAUUSD has faced a challenging performance for us. The Gold price is currently benefiting from an overnight bounce amidst a weaker USD, and we remain hopeful that this traction will be sustained, especially considering the price remains above the identified demand zone around the 2,020 and 2,027 area.

Despite a slightly elevated US CPI, the anticipation of a Fed rate cut in March could potentially impact Gold's performance. However, geopolitical risks and concerns over China's economic challenges continue to favor safe-haven assets like Gold.

At this juncture, another buy position has been triggered following the break of 2,035 as Gold prices gain traction in the Asian session. However, the upward movement lacks follow-through due to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Additionally, the recent consolidative price moves around our key level at 2,035 warrant caution for buyers. Traders are now turning their attention to the US Producer Price Index and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's speech for potential fresh impetus. We'll delve into the technical details during our upcoming live session this morning.

Good Morning

12. Jan.

Trade ist aktiv

#XAUUSD

UPDATE

Protect all buy positions as as we aim to recover the losses we incurred during the course of the week.