GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 17 - June 21]

XAUUSD maintained a steady recovery before the weekend, but the overall trend remained unclear as US consumer confidence continued to decline and inflation expectations remained high. COMEX gold futures (including electronic trading) closed up 1.31% at $2,348.40/ounce, up 1.01% this week.

On Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index fell to 65.6 from a revised 69.1 in May. The data was weaker than expected, with expectations for the index at around 72.1.

The new divergence between the Fed's interest rate forecast and market expectations could bring some volatility to the gold market in the short term.
The latest economic forecast shows the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once this year, down from three as forecast in March. The Fed's interest rate forecast, also known as the Dotplot, shows the federal funds rate will be above 5.00% by the end of the year.
“Inflation has eased over the past year but remains high,” the Fed said in its monetary policy statement. In recent months, inflation has made some progress toward the FOMC's 2% target.

Gold should still receive good support as central banks remain solid buyers despite data from the People's Bank of China showing their gold reserves did not increase last month.
China is the main driving force behind the increase in gold prices over the past year, and China's gold purchases have only been assessed as temporary and there has not been any move to show that they have "stopped". could also be a move to avoid paying a record high purchase price.

Another piece of data worth noting is US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing that in the week to June 11, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts decreased by 6,200 lots down to 177,549 lots.

Economic data next week will be relatively soft, and the technical price trend of gold will receive more attention. The market will get some preliminary and regional manufacturing data as well as some US housing data.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, although gold recovered from the support level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD that readers noticed last week, in general the recovery momentum is still limited and the downtrend has not been broken.

The recovery momentum of gold price is limited by the confluence area of ​​the technical point 2,345USD, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the upper edge of the price channel and the EMA21 moving average. In general, this will be the area where the gold price has all the important technical pressures for a technical downtrend.

As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish, while if gold breaks below $2,324 it will have room for more downside with the following target level That's about 2,305 - 2,300USD in the short term.

A new bearish cycle is expected to be ushered in once gold breaks below the original price of $2,300, and the subsequent short-term target level is $2,286 more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.

Next week, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish with the following notable technical levels.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD

📌Short-term trading plan for next week (illustrated chart): In the immediate future, we will consider selling if the price rises to 2365, buying if the price drops to 2260.

Kommentar:

Gold prices increased when new data on the US economy increased the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting interest rates in September this year.

The University of Michigan's consumer survey report showed that the consumer confidence index in June decreased to 65.6 points, down from 69.1 points in May and much lower than the forecast of 71. 5 points given by economic experts in a survey by Dow Jones news agency.

Kommentar:

As expected, the Fed agreed to keep monetary policy unchanged. However, their latest forecast suggests just one rate cut before the end of the year, instead of three as suggested in March.

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At a press conference held on Monday, the European Central Bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, noted that in the event of sharp fluctuations in the euro's movements in the forex market, this will have an impact on the ECB's monetary policy decision.

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Gold prices fell on Monday (June 17), influenced by rising US bond yields, while investors waited for more US economic data and comments from Reserve officials. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) this week will have more signals about the outlook for monetary policy.

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🟢The dollar rises as more signals are awaited about the direction of US interest rates

The dollar rose today, Tuesday, as traders awaited an important report on US retail sales and statements from the US Federal Reserve, searching for clear signals about the timing and pace of reducing interest rates.

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➡️The dollar continues to be under pressure due to negative economic data

At the same time, the dollar was subjected to some pressure due to negative economic data, which raised concerns about the economic conditions within the United States, as the United States Census Bureau on Tuesday issued US retail sales data for the month of May, which was negative and below market expectations.

Kommentar:

🟢It is too early to say whether inflation is falling to 2%.
🟢It is appropriate for the US central bank to remain patient regarding monetary policy decisions.
🟢I have realistic optimism about economics and politics.

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➡️THE PERFORMANCE OF THE US DOLLAR NOW

During global market trading on Wednesday, the US dollar index (which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six other foreign currencies) witnessed a decline of 0.08% and reached the level of 105.165 points, affected by several factors

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World gold prices were little changed last night and this morning (June 20), when the US financial market was closed for a holiday and investors were still "hungry" hoping that the Fed could cut interest rates in September. 9. According to some experts, gold prices are unlikely to increase sharply in the short term, but the factors that support the price of this precious metal in the long term remain unchanged...

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🟢Turkey records its largest monthly budget surplus ever, recording $6.7 billion in May, according to the Ministry of Treasury and Finance.

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World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Thursday (June 20), after statistics showing the weakness of the US economy reinforced the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start interest rate cut in September this year. Some experts say bulls have regained the upper hand in the gold market and are aiming for the next target of prices above 2,400 USD/oz.