GOLD - You are Legend (Weekly Overview)
Weekly overview.
Sometimes it's important to take a look at the weekly charts so we don't lose sight of the big picture.
The most important thing you need to know about gold these days and in 2020-2021: " You know it's a bull market."
Gold is in a bull market since 2015 December. Even in the basing process it was printing higher lows :
In a bull market there are ICLs also, but the ICLs are not taking out the previous intermediate lows, maximum backtesting it. Just like the ICL we had in 2020 March:
This is the maximum we can get in a strong trending market as a correction.So when I see analysts are talking about how gold will drop below 1500$ in this correction I say I don't know what they are smoking but I definitely want some of that.
Banks are waiting with heavy cavalry at the previous ICL just like in 2020 March and they will buy the dip if the ICL is backtested. As we already had a backtest of 1446 this August , a chance of the backtest is below 1%.
How do I know this decline is an intermediate decline and we are having a severe correction just like in 2020 March? The confirmation was the close below the 10 EMA :
Any time price closed below the 10 EMA in this bull market was the sign that intermediate decline had started.
The break of the 2009 September high was failed to hold:
This is not a catastrophy , the bull trend technically is not damaged as many people think. It’s just the sign that price run too fast too far and too late at the end of the intermediate cycle. The new gold traders – and especially RobinHood traders - haven’t seen tough steep corrections in the last 1 year so they think gold will not have deep corrections just a sideways consolidation and the next rally is starting.
In my previous ideas you already know my expectation for this decline to end is between 1750 and 1670.
Using the Fibonacci retracement this week we just tagged the 38,2% at 1839$.
The 50% will be at 1765$ and the 61,8% is at 1690$ what is very close to my original targets.
The last indicator I’m watching is the slow stochastic that should tag the oversold territory then I’M going to be ready to call the bottom.
Now that we know where we have to buy, the next question is what is coming in the next 2 years.
In the 2008-2011 bull market the 30EMA accompanied the rally:
In the 2020 bull market we need to find which moving average will be perfect.
Right now it looks like the 29MA or the 54MA will be the perfect accompanier. Both of them worked well during the 2019 April ICL.
In the 2019 November ICL only the 29MA was working and in the 2020 March crash the 54MA was perfect. By November when the prior decline ends we will get know which moving average we have to use in this bull market,
the 29MA:
or the 54MA
I feel the 54MA will be the winner during this run:
The above chart shows what I do expect in the following 2-3 years as the printed billions arrive to the precious metal market. By the end of 2022 beginning of 2023 we are going to tag or break 4000$ in gold.
The intermediate tops should come as:
2021 April-March above 2100$ probably at 2400-2500$
2021 November-December near to 3000$
2022 June –July 3700-3800$
2022 December -2023 January Above 4000$ maybe even 5000$...
If you are able to trade and sit out the next 4-5 intermediate cycles at 2022 Christmas when you wake up and look into the mirror I guarantee a Legend will look back.
Sometimes it's important to take a look at the weekly charts so we don't lose sight of the big picture.
The most important thing you need to know about gold these days and in 2020-2021: " You know it's a bull market."
Gold is in a bull market since 2015 December. Even in the basing process it was printing higher lows :
In a bull market there are ICLs also, but the ICLs are not taking out the previous intermediate lows, maximum backtesting it. Just like the ICL we had in 2020 March:
This is the maximum we can get in a strong trending market as a correction.So when I see analysts are talking about how gold will drop below 1500$ in this correction I say I don't know what they are smoking but I definitely want some of that.
Banks are waiting with heavy cavalry at the previous ICL just like in 2020 March and they will buy the dip if the ICL is backtested. As we already had a backtest of 1446 this August , a chance of the backtest is below 1%.
How do I know this decline is an intermediate decline and we are having a severe correction just like in 2020 March? The confirmation was the close below the 10 EMA :
Any time price closed below the 10 EMA in this bull market was the sign that intermediate decline had started.
The break of the 2009 September high was failed to hold:
This is not a catastrophy , the bull trend technically is not damaged as many people think. It’s just the sign that price run too fast too far and too late at the end of the intermediate cycle. The new gold traders – and especially RobinHood traders - haven’t seen tough steep corrections in the last 1 year so they think gold will not have deep corrections just a sideways consolidation and the next rally is starting.
In my previous ideas you already know my expectation for this decline to end is between 1750 and 1670.
Using the Fibonacci retracement this week we just tagged the 38,2% at 1839$.
The 50% will be at 1765$ and the 61,8% is at 1690$ what is very close to my original targets.
The last indicator I’m watching is the slow stochastic that should tag the oversold territory then I’M going to be ready to call the bottom.
Now that we know where we have to buy, the next question is what is coming in the next 2 years.
In the 2008-2011 bull market the 30EMA accompanied the rally:
In the 2020 bull market we need to find which moving average will be perfect.
Right now it looks like the 29MA or the 54MA will be the perfect accompanier. Both of them worked well during the 2019 April ICL.
In the 2019 November ICL only the 29MA was working and in the 2020 March crash the 54MA was perfect. By November when the prior decline ends we will get know which moving average we have to use in this bull market,
the 29MA:
or the 54MA
I feel the 54MA will be the winner during this run:
The above chart shows what I do expect in the following 2-3 years as the printed billions arrive to the precious metal market. By the end of 2022 beginning of 2023 we are going to tag or break 4000$ in gold.
The intermediate tops should come as:
2021 April-March above 2100$ probably at 2400-2500$
2021 November-December near to 3000$
2022 June –July 3700-3800$
2022 December -2023 January Above 4000$ maybe even 5000$...
If you are able to trade and sit out the next 4-5 intermediate cycles at 2022 Christmas when you wake up and look into the mirror I guarantee a Legend will look back.
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