GOLD → Bears continue to press the market

18. Juni 2023

XAUUSD had a nice bullish momentum last week, but after the false break-up of the triangle resistance, you might take a different view. What should we expect from the price in the next trading week?



The FED is not in a hurry to cut the rate, and some officials say that inflation is still high and it is worth expecting for the interest rate increase.
From the technical analysis point of view we see the formation of the global triangle, which is put on the base of the ascending price channel.



At the moment the market is under the pressure of the bears, a false break-down of the pattern support gives a strengthening of the price, but the resistance is not broken. Buyers are still weak. Another retest of pattern support could cause price to break not only triangle support but also price channel support.
The bullish outlook is weak within the boundaries of the triangle. Only if price breaks triangle resistance can we see a change in the local trend and a rise to 1984 or to 2000, but only if the dollar weakens further.



In the coming week, such fundamental data is published as:

Monday, June 19, 2023
Monday is a "Juneteenth" day off in the U.S.

Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market - analysts expect a bullish reading

Wednesday, June 21, 2023
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018 - Feb. 2022) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC

Thursday, June 22, 2023
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength - analysts expect declining

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018 - Feb. 2022) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

Friday, June 23, 2023
The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies.

Fundamentally, last week was bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold. The coming week is expected to be a volatile one. If last week's momentum continues, gold might well break the resistance and start the strengthening phase.
But at the moment there is a clear bearish outlook on the chart. If this is confirmed by a break of the trend base, the price might head towards 1907-1895

Regards R. Linda!