OIL - Call for the cycle top

Oil             is due for a drop into its intermediate low. I'm entering an 50% short position here at 60.17$. If we don't erase today's reversal candle I will enter the other 50% short position. My suggested margin impact is 50% for ones whole account.
I'm already short with a smaller position from this idea :

So I'm just going deeper in this short trade. We have a nice MACD devergence on the daily and TSI is starting to cross over.
RSI is extremely overbought.

Firs we will test the previous intermediate cycle top at 55$.
The next level is the 200 SMA at 50-51$. That is the first possible level to print the ICL. But I think we will break below the 200 SMA and maybe tag the first DCL at 45-46$. Time will tell.

Kommentar: Selling 25% at 61.82. We are in 75% position now.:/
Kommentar: Selling the last 25% of the position at this bearish pin bar. Price :63,56$
FYI US Crude

America crude oil exports remain near record levels, averaging 1.45 million barrels per day over the past 13 weeks and crude oil inventories continue to draw down. Increased export capacity coming online in 2018.

The latest; EIA report, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 412.7 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels last week, and are
in the middle of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.9
million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels last week, and are in
the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 13.8 million barrels last week.

HFI research; We are looking at a global oil draw of approximately 1 million b/d with an upside to WTI to $80 this year.

I entered a small short at $64.80 and will add to the position between $65 - $70 looking to exit the short at $60 -$62
+1 Antworten
@MMadryga, Thanks for the update MMadryga.
Backtest of trendline is forming a strong head and shoulders on the 4 hour chart. If neckline fails trend us reverse, if neckline holds, this idea is invalidated. That's my take on this idea. To be transparent... I'm holding my shorts and looking for $61.40 then $59 and a stretch to $55.
+1 Antworten
popshvt e12568
@e12568, thanks for your idea
Hi Arpi, What is your view on crude? I know you are a great cycle trader..come on man!!
+2 Antworten
--- "WTI Crude Oil" -- and the -- "Commitment Of Traders Report" -- "Update" ---
a = Small Traders = Plus 16,508 Contracts = "The Little Guys and Gals"
b = Large Traders = Plus 657,590 Contracts
c = "SMART MONEY" = Minus 674,098 Contracts
This -- "Is Not" -- a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
This is for information only. -- "Education Only"

"Good Luck" -- and -- "Good Trading"
"One Eye Jim"
rere04 jeffreyjim
@jeffreyjim, thanx
@rere04, --- "Looks Cool" --- "Yes" or "No" = "Your" Thoughts = " ? "
rere04 jeffreyjim
@jeffreyjim, "Agree" ''Looks Clean" = "High Five"
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