Will the US Retail Sales result in a weak USD/JPY close?
As we approach the weekly close, the US Retail Sales will catch the attention of traders, especially USD/JPY traders.
While the outlook for the Japanese Yen hasn't in fact changed over the last week, since US inflation came in below 2% at 1.8% last Wednesday and market participants not seeing any further dovishness from the Fed into the yearly end, markets seem a little too biased towards a "wait-and-see" approach from the US central bank.
That said, after USD/JPY pushed back towards 109.00/30, mainly driven by 10-year US-Treasury yields which took on bullish momentum in the first half of November while gaining over 20 basis points and driving the positive correlated USD/JPY higher, a disappointing US Retail Sales data set today could result in a weak weekly close in the USD/JPY.
Retail Sales data is expected to come in at 0.2% (MoM) for the month of October after a disappointing data set for September at -0.3%, showing the first decline in retail trade since February, mainly due to lower sales at motor vehicles, building materials, hobbies and online purchases.
So, any print below 0.2% and confirmation of the last Retail Sales prints leaves room for the Short-side in USD/JPY, which we also consider to be more attractive from a risk-reward-perspective with a first important target on the downside being found around 107.80/108.00.
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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
While the outlook for the Japanese Yen hasn't in fact changed over the last week, since US inflation came in below 2% at 1.8% last Wednesday and market participants not seeing any further dovishness from the Fed into the yearly end, markets seem a little too biased towards a "wait-and-see" approach from the US central bank.
That said, after USD/JPY pushed back towards 109.00/30, mainly driven by 10-year US-Treasury yields which took on bullish momentum in the first half of November while gaining over 20 basis points and driving the positive correlated USD/JPY higher, a disappointing US Retail Sales data set today could result in a weak weekly close in the USD/JPY.
Retail Sales data is expected to come in at 0.2% (MoM) for the month of October after a disappointing data set for September at -0.3%, showing the first decline in retail trade since February, mainly due to lower sales at motor vehicles, building materials, hobbies and online purchases.
So, any print below 0.2% and confirmation of the last Retail Sales prints leaves room for the Short-side in USD/JPY, which we also consider to be more attractive from a risk-reward-perspective with a first important target on the downside being found around 107.80/108.00.
Ready to start trading the live markets? Then open a free account with Admiral Markets - 8,000+ instruments to choose from, some of the market's tightest typical spreads, and the world's #1 multi-asset trading platform. admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/
Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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