USD/JPY Bullish long Range
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US Dollar Dips but Finds Buyers
The US dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading week, but found enough support underneath to turn things around. The ¥138 level is an area that a lot of people had been paying attention to as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have marked on the chart, and of course the “market memory” that comes with the top of the ascending triangle is coming into the picture. If we turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the ¥142 level.
If we break above the ¥142 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥148 level which is the measured move from the ascending triangle. You can see that we broke out exactly where you would anticipate seeing that based upon standard technical analysis, so I do think this is a market that you are a buyer of dips on given enough time, and will have to look at it through that prism. I have no interest in shorting this market, and I do believe that as soon the market breaks above the top of this candlestick, we will probably continue to see a lot of upward momentum and a move to the upside.
If we were to break down below the ¥138 level, then it could see a fairly steep correction, but right now I don’t see that in the cards, and I believe we probably still have the possibility of a stretch higher. The US dollar continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve being tight while the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control.
BoJ Governor in no hurry to alter BoJ monetary policy path
Key levels to watch for USD/JPY for the current bearish continuation scenario
BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA IN NO HURRY TO ALTER COURSE
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank is in no rush to alter the path of monetary policy despite interest rates holding above the 2% target since early 2022. The pick up in inflation has been attributed to supply side effects created by the demand and supply mismatch brought about as a result of the Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war.
However, this morning at a platform for Japan’s government draft economic policy, it was declared that the government will eradicate a deflationary mindset and move towards ending deflation with bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and with its growth strategy. Additionally, the draft policy issued hope that the BoJ achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target, accompanied by welcomed wage growth. The news helped the pair continue to ease lower in early European trading.
USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND KEY LEVELS OF INTEREST
USD/JPY turned lower at the beginning of the week when news of a provisional agreement to raise the debt ceiling filtered into the market. Since then, interest rate expectations have reversed course, initially favouring a 25-basis point hike and now largely favouring the no hike or “skip” outcome. As such, a weaker dollar has benefitted the yen which now sees the pair on track for 5 consecutive days of declines.
The 138.20 and 138.00 zone of support currently appears as the next area of support, followed by the 200 SMA which hovers around 137.27 at present. The downward momentum is supported by the return from overbought territory on the RSI towards neutral levels, alleviating pressure on Japanese officials that had to issue a warning that they are closely watching speculative moves in the currency market. Resistance lies all the way at 140/142.25, some distance away.
MAJOR RISK EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK
Today at 13:30 UK time, US non-farm payroll data is anticipated to reveal a fewer number of jobs being added in May compared to April. Actual prints have varied significantly from prior estimates so be prepared for increased volatility in the event we see another departure from the consensus figure of 190k. If yesterday's ADP (private payroll data) beat and increased employment number within the ISM manufacturing PMI are anything to go by, we could very well see a print above expectations. However, it must be said that ADP has proven an unreliable predictor of NFP data and the jury is still out on whether its new methodology is any better than the last. A sizeable beat may see an uptick in rate expectations, lifting the dollar, and by extension, USD/JPY. A miss could add to the current sell-off as traders get behind an interest rate skip later this month.
US services PMI will be a crucial data point in analysing the state of the US economy at a time when equity indices surge on thanks to a handful of massive tech and AI-aligned names. Towards the end of next week Japan will see the final GDP figure for Q1 - which is likely to confirm a much improved outlook than what emerged in the final quarter of last year.
The US dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading week, but found enough support underneath to turn things around. The ¥138 level is an area that a lot of people had been paying attention to as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have marked on the chart, and of course the “market memory” that comes with the top of the ascending triangle is coming into the picture. If we turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the ¥142 level.
If we break above the ¥142 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥148 level which is the measured move from the ascending triangle. You can see that we broke out exactly where you would anticipate seeing that based upon standard technical analysis, so I do think this is a market that you are a buyer of dips on given enough time, and will have to look at it through that prism. I have no interest in shorting this market, and I do believe that as soon the market breaks above the top of this candlestick, we will probably continue to see a lot of upward momentum and a move to the upside.
If we were to break down below the ¥138 level, then it could see a fairly steep correction, but right now I don’t see that in the cards, and I believe we probably still have the possibility of a stretch higher. The US dollar continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve being tight while the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control.
BoJ Governor in no hurry to alter BoJ monetary policy path
Key levels to watch for USD/JPY for the current bearish continuation scenario
BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA IN NO HURRY TO ALTER COURSE
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank is in no rush to alter the path of monetary policy despite interest rates holding above the 2% target since early 2022. The pick up in inflation has been attributed to supply side effects created by the demand and supply mismatch brought about as a result of the Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war.
However, this morning at a platform for Japan’s government draft economic policy, it was declared that the government will eradicate a deflationary mindset and move towards ending deflation with bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and with its growth strategy. Additionally, the draft policy issued hope that the BoJ achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target, accompanied by welcomed wage growth. The news helped the pair continue to ease lower in early European trading.
USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND KEY LEVELS OF INTEREST
USD/JPY turned lower at the beginning of the week when news of a provisional agreement to raise the debt ceiling filtered into the market. Since then, interest rate expectations have reversed course, initially favouring a 25-basis point hike and now largely favouring the no hike or “skip” outcome. As such, a weaker dollar has benefitted the yen which now sees the pair on track for 5 consecutive days of declines.
The 138.20 and 138.00 zone of support currently appears as the next area of support, followed by the 200 SMA which hovers around 137.27 at present. The downward momentum is supported by the return from overbought territory on the RSI towards neutral levels, alleviating pressure on Japanese officials that had to issue a warning that they are closely watching speculative moves in the currency market. Resistance lies all the way at 140/142.25, some distance away.
MAJOR RISK EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK
Today at 13:30 UK time, US non-farm payroll data is anticipated to reveal a fewer number of jobs being added in May compared to April. Actual prints have varied significantly from prior estimates so be prepared for increased volatility in the event we see another departure from the consensus figure of 190k. If yesterday's ADP (private payroll data) beat and increased employment number within the ISM manufacturing PMI are anything to go by, we could very well see a print above expectations. However, it must be said that ADP has proven an unreliable predictor of NFP data and the jury is still out on whether its new methodology is any better than the last. A sizeable beat may see an uptick in rate expectations, lifting the dollar, and by extension, USD/JPY. A miss could add to the current sell-off as traders get behind an interest rate skip later this month.
US services PMI will be a crucial data point in analysing the state of the US economy at a time when equity indices surge on thanks to a handful of massive tech and AI-aligned names. Towards the end of next week Japan will see the final GDP figure for Q1 - which is likely to confirm a much improved outlook than what emerged in the final quarter of last year.
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The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a 'soft landing' after Congress's approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
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DXY Falls after Weekly ClaimsThe dollar index dropped to as low as 103.58 on Thursday after higher-than-anticipated weekly claims reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt its cycle of interest rate increases before resuming them in July, but unexpected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike already next week. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's decision could be influenced by the release of May's consumer inflation data, scheduled for a day before the central bank's meeting, which is projected to indicate a 0.3% increase in prices.
Initial Jobless Claims Jump to 2021-Highs
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 261K in the week ended June 3rd 2023, the highest figure since October 2021, and above market forecasts of 235K. Figures for the previous week were revised slightly higher to 233K from an initial 232K. It marks a third consecutive week of increases in the number of initial jobless claims, in a sign the labour market strenght may be fading. The 4-week moving average which removes week-to-week volatility was 237.25K, an increase of 7.5K from the previous week. Based on unadjusted data, the largest increases in initial claims were in Ohio (6.345K), California (5.173K), and Minnesota (2.746K), while the largest decreases were in Connecticut (-2.35K) and NY (-1.243K). Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 1757K from 1794K, below forecasts of 1800K.
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t will be a busy week in the US, with the Fed interest rate decision, inflation rate, retail sales, and Michigan consumer sentiment taking the central stage. Investors will closely follow the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings. Additionally, China will be releasing industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data, while India will announce its inflation rate and industrial production figures. Other important releases include Germany's ZEW Business Confidence, UK's trade balance and GDP for April, and Australia's consumer and business confidence as well as jobless rate.Anmerkung
Asian Stock Market: Bulls and bears jostle at monthly top ahead of central bank decisionsAsia-Pacific shares grind near one-month highs amid cautious mood.
Softer Japan inflation, hopes of no PBOC rate hike underpin mildly positive risk appetite.
Holidays in Australia, light calendar elsewhere join pre-Fed anxiety to limit market moves.
Gold price is looking to extend Friday’s pullback from five-day highs of $1,973 on Monday. Despite the retreat, Gold price maintains its last week’s range, as investors turn cautious ahead of a big week, with eyes on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Federal Reserve policy announcements
USD/JPY strengthens beyond mid-139.00s on modest USD uptick, lacks bullish conviction
USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA but recovery remains elusive below 0.9100
GBPUSD SHORT on hawkish FED
SHORT
DAX40 Will Rise much more Higher
LONG
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US Fed, BOJ, ECB Are Set to Announce Policies This WeekAnmerkung
US Dollar Index: DXY fades recovery below 104.00 on downbeat Fed bets, US inflation eyedUS Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.
It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.
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European equity markets were set for a positive open on Friday, tracking global peers higher amid bets that US interest rates could be nearing their peak as the American economy loses momentum and after the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign in June. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank opted to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying ‘we are not thinking about pausing.” Investors now look ahead to final euro zone inflation figures and wage growth data for further clues on the economy and future monetary policy. DAX futures jumped 0.9%, Stoxx 600 futures gained 0.5% and FTSE 100 futures edged up 0.2% in premarket trade.Anmerkung
Gold is Being Pulled Between a Hawkish Fed and New Geopolitical ConcernsUS Housing Surprises, Fed Pauses but Remains Hawkish
Last week, US economic data revealed a much stronger than expected housing market, with the NAHB Housing Market Index surpassing expectations to hit its highest level since July of last year. New building permits also beat market expectations, and new housing starts surged to their highest level since May 2022.
Last month, we reviewed the three possibilities of a Federal Reserve pivoting to rate cuts, continuing to hike, or pausing. The June FOMC meeting delivered our most likely scenario of a pause, which we presented as one of the better cases for gold, at least in the short term.
However, what markets received from the June FOMC meeting was a hawkish pause, in which no action was taken, while Chair Powell renewed his hawkish rhetoric, underlining his commitment to the task of bringing down inflation.
In a busy week for FOMC speakers, markets had the opportunity to digest comments from a total of six FOMC members. Jerome Powell also made his semi-annual trip to Capitol Hill, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, and Senate Banking Committee, where he all-but confirmed that more rate hikes are in store and stated that “we don’t see rate cuts any time soon.”
Gold’s Reaction
The result of this pull between the resilience of the US economy plus a hawkish Fed on the one hand, and growing geopolitical uncertainty on the other, has resulted in muted price action despite the overall bearish trend.
We’re seeing this among investors at HYCM as well, for whom gold is one of the most popular assets this year. Positioning suggests current price action could be a period of short-term profit-taking within a longer-term bullish view.
We can see this reflected in gold’s chart. Between June 20 and 22, which saw the release of US housing data and FOMC speeches, gold prices declined by almost 2.4%.
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The US economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in Q1 2023, well above 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecasts of 1.4%. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.Anmerkung
Here is an analysis of the positive and negative impacts of a weak and strong Japanese yen on various countries and regions:Positive Impacts of Weak Japanese Yen:
Japanese Exports: A weak yen can boost Japanese exports by making them more price competitive in international markets. It makes Japanese goods relatively cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially increasing demand and stimulating export-oriented industries.
Tourism: A weak yen can attract more international tourists to Japan, as their foreign currencies can have greater purchasing power in the country. This can benefit the tourism industry and generate foreign exchange earnings.
Overseas Investments: A weak yen can encourage Japanese businesses and investors to seek opportunities abroad. It makes overseas investments relatively cheaper in terms of yen, potentially promoting outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and diversifying business activities.
Negative Impacts of Weak Japanese Yen:
Imported Inflation: A weak yen increases the cost of importing goods and raw materials, potentially leading to higher inflation. This can impact the purchasing power of Japanese consumers and erode their standard of living.
Energy Imports: Japan is heavily reliant on energy imports, particularly oil and natural gas. A weak yen increases the cost of energy imports, which can have adverse effects on energy-intensive industries and contribute to higher production costs.
Consumer Electronics: Japan is known for its consumer electronics industry. A weak yen can increase the cost of importing electronic components and materials, potentially affecting the competitiveness and profitability of Japanese electronic manufacturers.
Positive Impacts of Strong Japanese Yen:
Imported Goods: A strong yen makes imported goods relatively cheaper, benefiting Japanese consumers and potentially increasing their purchasing power.
Energy Costs: A strong yen reduces the cost of energy imports, which can benefit energy-intensive industries and help control production costs.
Travel and Education Abroad: A strong yen can make international travel and education abroad more affordable for Japanese citizens, potentially boosting outbound tourism and educational opportunities.
Negative Impacts of Strong Japanese Yen:
Japanese Exports: A strong yen can make Japanese exports relatively more expensive in international markets, potentially reducing their competitiveness and impacting export-oriented industries.
Tourism: A strong yen can make Japan relatively more expensive for international tourists, potentially affecting the tourism industry and reducing foreign exchange earnings.
Inflation and Deflation Concerns: A strong yen can exacerbate deflationary pressures in the Japanese economy, as it makes imported goods cheaper and can lead to lower domestic prices. This can hinder economic growth and pose challenges for policymakers.
It's important to note that the impact of currency strength or weakness on a country's economy can vary depending on various factors, including the country's economic structure, trade dynamics, fiscal policies, and global market conditions. The effects on specific countries or regions can also depend on their trade relationships, exchange rate policies, and economic interdependencies with Japan.
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trade is openAnmerkung
Dow Rises for 11th SessionThe Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.
US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.
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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
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Trade openI short the Yen , and am long majors
BOJ to keep ultra-low rates
Kazuo Ueda has vowed to keep ultra-loose policy until he is more convinced the economy can weather global headwinds and allow firms to keep hiking wages next year
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New Upate: All trades open active ALL BULLISH!Technicals:
27 of 28 Indicators are bullish on 2H,4H,Monthly and Daily
Above 146,882 strong new Buypressure is expected, which will rive USDJPY to heaven( 147,516, 145,548,149,321,151,600)
151 is very important as we will expect vebal intevientions of BOj, which to me personally i very senseless, as in the past we have seen that even 2 strong interventions of the BOj have been emolished by the powe of the traers: DXY very strong, falling bond prices, and with strong dollar there is nerly tigh room fo BOJ to buy expencive US Bonds.That will lead us to the next technical fact: High volume on the top.The bullish volume comparission of the 2022 shows that now the strong bullish support volume has been shofted upsie fofrom 131,65 to 144,415. This means that now big instutions orldwie are massivley buying USD vs Jpanease Yen. Also rising Oil prices(Bullish signal) is helping to suppot vs yen, as JAPAN is 100% dependant on foreign oil:JAPAN HAS TO SELL YEN AND BUY US OLALR,to pay the Oil bills. This will create strong buy pressure on US olallar market cap. Additionally Chinas economy is weakenning which will have vey negative impact on Asia and Oceania makets. AUD,Japanease Yen are the first currenices which will lose more vs US dollar.
The beak above 151 will catapult the USD/JPY to around 190!!! VEY Fast! There we will have a consolidation ohase, and if BOJ doesnt change its policy ,my 2n Target will be 230! But before that we will have a correction to down to GAP fill at 155-165 area: Because the market will RISE VERY FAST UPWADS!
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++++Be careful Attention! VERY IMPORTANT+++++10Y Bonds US are testing 15 years Highest High. On day and weekly the trend is bullish. If it breaks that high and closes above 4,5 then the bonds US10Y will rise to 4,70%: At that level USDJPY; NASDAQ,RTY SP500, USD will break own nearly to cash and it will cause a sudden death or Sudden Crsh. So watch closely that maket,
++++iT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT+++ Please dont trade blindly. And watch the markets and their intermarket relations.
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USDJPY bullisha break below 147.608
leads short term bearish move to 147.469 147 363 and 147.033 A break above 147,936 leads to 148.903 and to 151.764. Trading between 147.608 and 147.936 is not recommanded
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USD/JPY currently in Bullish mode:5D Close price calculated with my All in One Indicator is green(The close line changes colour to give bullish or bearish signals).The price is below red 1D Close, but bewteen S/R projected range(Sideways bearish.)
Sideways and no tradezone are marked in Yellow. Trading in This Zones are not recommandable.
Bullish Levels:
A break above 147.99 leads USDJPY TO 148:45;148;96 AND TO 152:
means bullish oppurtunity:
Bearish Levels
A break below 147.58 leads USDJPY TO 147:176; 147;03; 146,67 146,45 146,25 and 145,92
means bearish chance .
We can trade the trend or work individuell with profit targets.
Look for retracements.
USDJPY All Bullish/Bearish Levels and Signals Next Week
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US100 shortBased on AFPand yahoo news . Iran seems to think the priority is to take the fight to the Israelis first
Saudi Arabia puts Israel deal on ice amid war, engages with Iran, sources say
If socurrently Oil and commodities jumping higher, that will cause hiigher US Dollar, and dropping Indices down..
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