Today we definitively broke the 443 level and if you draw the upward channel based on closing prices, we've closed outside this channel which has been in place since May. We've also closed below the 100 EMA which we've bounced each previous test of the bottom of the channel.
I predict we continue to sell off to this 435 level and then bounce to retest the 100 EMA. Then I think we get rejected and then head back down to the 410-gap fill that was made on May 19 where this upward channel started. I do not think the fed will not taper next week so we should have a strong rally at some point next week but not before more pain ahead.
A strong break above the 20 EMA which is currently at 446.79 would invalidate my hypothesis of this 410 correction.
I predict we continue to sell off to this 435 level and then bounce to retest the 100 EMA. Then I think we get rejected and then head back down to the 410-gap fill that was made on May 19 where this upward channel started. I do not think the fed will not taper next week so we should have a strong rally at some point next week but not before more pain ahead.
A strong break above the 20 EMA which is currently at 446.79 would invalidate my hypothesis of this 410 correction.
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50 EMA*