Bullish til $407.50 then looking to short the HnS pattern

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SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (AMEX:SPY)

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AMEX:SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST

trendanalysis harmonicpatterns chartpattern spy spylong spyshort

The AD is causing an ascending triangle on the 2hr chart

I'm forecasting here, so give me a little rope. The AD is ascending (ascending triangle technically) to $407-$408 area. It's likely to retest the 3rd leg of the Eliott wave which was sold off. This rejection, can cause a bearish Head and shoulders pattern.

look at wave 1 as the left shoulder, wave 3 as the head, and this final push in attempt to invalidate wave 3 which will likely cause a bearish head and shoulders pattern.

Tomorrows FOMC meeting/discussion is going to be more volatile than normal. Imho, both bulls/bears should be able to eat. I wont take a short position til after $407.50 is touched.. Look at the market heavyweights TSLA, AAPL, SPY (obviously), for clues but will also be looking at $uvxy, $faz, $tlt for additional clues.

so seeing this now, I likely wont beat up futures... I'll just be monitoring and posting some updates to the chart. Im both a bull/bear when I need to be..

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1hr time on spy did have a bearish close, however that means nothing going into fomc.. im more than sure there are heavy puts that were bought at the close.. likely folks want to hedge their positions which is smart . I would be surprised to see a dip during premarket

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hasn't ben invalidated and i've been monitoring this for a while. Its now or never imho

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Notice the $407.88 target.. it lines up perfect w/ this theory. Im not a fortune teller, I just follow the money. we shall see

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monitoring this
$spx futures 1min AD showing a Descending Triangle.. scalping a small long position futures

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What I want to see on the futures leading into premarket (not saying this is going to happen)

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rising wedge

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they going to make me put my bear suit on during futures session

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if 3973 is breached, next area of support is 3940, which could set up a bullish cypher pattern. Just focusing on the last two weeks going back to the 13th

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to be clear im not anticipating $spy to moon to $407 out the gate from fomc, this could play out over a few days. i'm forecasting.. also this rising wedge, could lead to a retrace.. I see a base forming.. if the pattern turns into a bullish cypher set up. this could lead to a cup/handle forming on the futures

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there's a better view on the 2hr chart

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now here where it can extremely technical... I see a rounding top within a rounding top, yes I said that... look at the 4hr

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im shorting the futures here hard at the moment looking for 3944
3x top AD + price Action + Chikou Span on 30min time frame.. not sure if it will carry over into open trading session. get your shopping carts out and look for bargains

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uvxy premarket scalp, will hold til 3944 area.. if it hits before ny open, im out the scalp

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I also like $spx the 3x bear sp500 etf... til the 3944 area, 1st target is 3973..because it was a previous resistances area.

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added puts at the opening

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need to fill this gap

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looking for a bull flag .. I have $400 calls on $spy.. I'm hedge both ways

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high probability but does have risk.. this is the bull flag set up im seeing. I have a position in $spx as a hedge in the event trade goes south. You could cover w/ some puts. You dont have to get too deep w/ them, just enough to cover your position or just straight SPX as a hedge.. Only thing I see so far.. that I would recommend. I have more advantage because of my hedge. good luck if you're trailing.. but be careful

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also notice the small base attached to the bull flag, which is acting as a cup/handle til we get confirmed breakout.. but fully expect more volatility. If scared, nervous stay on the sidelines

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15min time frame stoch rsi below cloud

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The AD is also below the cloud along w/ the stoch rsi

I technically could close those $398 puts I got at the open on $spy and flip them for more calls. But I wont. Its best to leave the hedge in play

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added more calls here at $400 I really like this set up

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closed my shorts

going to let it ride now

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just dont know how deep it will be created, I wanted to see $393.5 earlier but I can't be in a short position during fomc, I could do it easily leading up to it.. so w/ the volatility thats expected. Im say max pain intraday is 393.5, if it breaks $384-380 bullish thesis is over

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see how they tease me. The handle could also form at 394.00 im just ready to get this trade over with.. 2pm is almost here

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believe it or not this is forming into a bull flag

(pointed this out in the earlier chart, which made me close my shorts) sorry if this feels complicated.. Just sharing what my eyes are seeing

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stealth bull flag leading into fomc...

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we did that

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looking for futures to open near or slightly above 4000 by NY open Thursday

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feel like the only trader in the world buying up futures, and I dont care. A lot of put holders, a lot of short positions, and folks still in those 3x bear etfs...
short squeeze coming imho

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looking for a retest , I see a series of cup/handles forming. Also coincides w/ TSLA cup/handle pattern. What you see on smaller time frames, lead to bigger time frames til there's an invalidation. I.E if you see a cup/handle pattern on the 1,3,5min chart it will continue to form on the higher time frames until there's an invalidation. if you scroll up, you'll see the cup/handle pattern on the bigger time frames. They haven't been invalidated yet. NOT TRADING OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, im just sharing my trades, thoughts, and experience

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what i'm anticipating.. need to see the AD breakout of the apex, and price action will retest 3970... which sold off earlier to give us the handle.. this sets the precedent for the next cup/handle

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see how I use the AD ? to determine the next move once it broke out of the Apex

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moving onto the 3min time frame.. waiting for confirmation of the 3min cup/handle breakout above 3960

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3963*

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use the accumulation/distribution to determine spike levels by setting a resistances level and waiting for cross over. You can also adjust your moving averages to a 18/50 cross to get in earlier if you wished

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same 3min time frame, notice how the money flow is ascending, they been buying all night, and i've been right there w/ them

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now when I attach the flow to the main chart, the AD ascends til 3966 APEX. At that point, we would have to wait for confirmation of the direction

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needs to hold this trendline

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needs to hold this trendline

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a 3970 before NY is extremely bullish, perhaps I had irrational exuberance for wanting 4000 before NY open.. we have 40min we'll see

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also approaching the apex near 3966

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Here it is Bull flag breakout to 406 or Crash back to $380 (more likely $370 which was a previous target)

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omg been killing it off the lows

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gotta swim w/ the sharks or get eaten by them. going have this close inside my apex and bull flag.. and potentially close above yesterdays close. if this happens in the next few minutes this going to be a huge win for me

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shhhhh

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i'll do the wave count later

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cup/handle breakout / bull flag from wave c set up for friday holding calls and added ... swim w/ the sharks or get eaten by them look for 406 over next few sessions. cheers