sngyuchao

SPX, NDX Short

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
As my charts clearly showed, we are at the end of an ending diagonal within an expanded flat. That is happening for both indices. Of course, for the NDX, it might be kind of a forced count (guilty as charged), however, if this scenario plays out, what is gonna happen is that the indices will make very swift move down. This is the characteristics of an ending diagonal. Does it mean that price will stop moving up from here? I think the answer is no. Why not?

For one, they haven't reached a fibo price target even though, I should emphasize, the wave length are sufficient condition to fulfill the rules of EW (wave 3 is never the shortest wave).

Now, if you are a non-believer of EW, I guessed you count also take a look at the RSI. Change to the period you like or the standard period, it's up to you. It's overbought. Take note that RSI is NOT my primary analysis tool but I do use it to figure out where certain waves are when they are not so clear on the chart. To be transparent, I did make 2 short calls recently too that unfortunately, lasted only 1 day (a.k.a "Bear Traps").

Anyway, in order to make money, we need to know the "general conditions" as what Jesse Livermore said. And from the various data that we have been seeing, they're not looking good. Namely, inflation, interest rates, yield curve inversion, M2 (peaked), and debt ceiling replenishment.

Let me also make a prediction here: Fed will increase interest rates by 25 basis point. The reason is because the 3 month treasury yield have been above 5.25% for a sustained period of time.

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