SHORT 81% of traders are currently short on the SP500!
According to www.dailyfx.com market sentiment tool a staggering 81% of traders are holding net short positions on the SP500.
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Now I understand that roughly about the same percentage of traders don't make money and maybe that's why the SP500 has been making new highs lately?
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As always, I present you with my technical view of the market and then you can decide.
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Looking at the monthly charts it's fairly easy to say were due for a correction, but "when" is the key here. So I'll start with the 2 day chart.
A close look at the most recent impulse compared to the last impulse. They are almost identical in range...almost. Singularity presents itself directly at the WEEKLY -270. Spotted at 2423. Only 9 points away!
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The normal daily interval is showing us massive divergence on the MACD
Same with 4 hour
Same with 1 hour
And the weekly chart shows the same divergence with a 5 wave count.
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Price has been stalling just under 2400 for quite some time. And we saw a quick sell off just last week which recovered to new high's just as fast. Historically, before sell offs we normally see some irregular price action like this.
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Go back to 2008, we see price correcting not steadily climbing as before! It does this for around 148 days before the sell off in December.
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Rewind to 2000, right before the crash.
We see price stalling for around 157 days and selling off sharply in October.
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And then there was 1987
This thing didn't give much of a warning. Perhaps it was a time where less market manipulation took place? But we can see the sell off came around the end of of October.
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Drawing from current technical analysis and historical data we may see some shit going down by the end of the year. Be patient and don't try and pick a top people! Just look at the charts from 1987, 2000 and 2008. I can see a few places for perfect entries AFTER a sell off was already confirmed and price really wasn't too far away from the top anyway.
Bottom line: The crowd is right, but they got to the party early and the music hasn't even started yet so its kinda awkward.
..
Now I understand that roughly about the same percentage of traders don't make money and maybe that's why the SP500 has been making new highs lately?
..
As always, I present you with my technical view of the market and then you can decide.
..
Looking at the monthly charts it's fairly easy to say were due for a correction, but "when" is the key here. So I'll start with the 2 day chart.
..
The normal daily interval is showing us massive divergence on the MACD
..
Price has been stalling just under 2400 for quite some time. And we saw a quick sell off just last week which recovered to new high's just as fast. Historically, before sell offs we normally see some irregular price action like this.
..
Go back to 2008, we see price correcting not steadily climbing as before! It does this for around 148 days before the sell off in December.
Rewind to 2000, right before the crash.
..
And then there was 1987
..
Drawing from current technical analysis and historical data we may see some shit going down by the end of the year. Be patient and don't try and pick a top people! Just look at the charts from 1987, 2000 and 2008. I can see a few places for perfect entries AFTER a sell off was already confirmed and price really wasn't too far away from the top anyway.
Bottom line: The crowd is right, but they got to the party early and the music hasn't even started yet so its kinda awkward.
Kommentar:
So we got the small move up right to the top of the channel, let's see what happens after NFP.
PS. I corrected my channel line a little bit because I had it drawn wrong in the initial post. Analysis still the same though.
