01 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty -A dramatic reversal of stance🐂
Nifty Analysis
If you had witnessed the price action, then today’s performance was the total opposite. This is what I said yesterday “I wish to change my stance to bearish for tomorrow unless the 19310 resistance is breached.” and guess what - we had the break of resistance in the first 30mts itself.
Who would believe we had a 203pts intraday rally today and not just the break of resistance. As soon as the 1hr passed above the 19310 levels, I had to go long today - because the momentum was in favor of the bulls.
As it stands Nifty has made its 3rd attempt to break away from the bearish channel. Remember the first 2 attempts were rejected wherein Nifty was pulled back. Today’s price action is quite different - the leap in points came during trading and not by gap-up signifying a shift in the sentiment.
Opening gap-up and then not sustaining is just euphoria & will fade out pretty soon, whereas the gains or pains made during trading hours shows mass market acceptance. The number of green hourly candles today = 5 and the red ones = 2 with no body. Nifty is back at the 19450 levels, something already tested on 30th Aug.
If you were also short like me for today, there is a high possibility that you would have run into losses just like me. What we need to learn from this is - we hope and plan for X to happen and most likely Y happens. If trading was that easy, then everybody would have made it.
As it stands, I change my stance from bearish to 60% bullish & 40% neutral for Monday 04 Sep. The moment 19564 gets taken out my stance will be 100% bullish
If you had witnessed the price action, then today’s performance was the total opposite. This is what I said yesterday “I wish to change my stance to bearish for tomorrow unless the 19310 resistance is breached.” and guess what - we had the break of resistance in the first 30mts itself.
Who would believe we had a 203pts intraday rally today and not just the break of resistance. As soon as the 1hr passed above the 19310 levels, I had to go long today - because the momentum was in favor of the bulls.
As it stands Nifty has made its 3rd attempt to break away from the bearish channel. Remember the first 2 attempts were rejected wherein Nifty was pulled back. Today’s price action is quite different - the leap in points came during trading and not by gap-up signifying a shift in the sentiment.
Opening gap-up and then not sustaining is just euphoria & will fade out pretty soon, whereas the gains or pains made during trading hours shows mass market acceptance. The number of green hourly candles today = 5 and the red ones = 2 with no body. Nifty is back at the 19450 levels, something already tested on 30th Aug.
If you were also short like me for today, there is a high possibility that you would have run into losses just like me. What we need to learn from this is - we hope and plan for X to happen and most likely Y happens. If trading was that easy, then everybody would have made it.
As it stands, I change my stance from bearish to 60% bullish & 40% neutral for Monday 04 Sep. The moment 19564 gets taken out my stance will be 100% bullish
