Nasdaq probably near a cyclical top

The 3 major US indices marked new all-time highs just after market opening. The Nasdaq 100 was the only index to record decreasing momentum into today’s top. The index hit our light blue trend channel resistance this morning. It got rejected from there. This trend goes back all the way to 2010 and tracks our primary wave 3. Moreover, Europe was struggling to make new highs despite US strength over the past couple trading days. This all fits into the picture of building a top of at least intermediate degree.

Building tops and bottoms gets messy regarding wave structure. We don’t expect to see textbook relationships down to subminuette degree if a primary wave top forms around here. However, non-confirmation was a reliable indicator around reversal points of higher degree in the past.

For the moment we’ll keep our base case bear count and let the market do its work. It will be altered once the main European indices hit new highs or the US stretches further to the upside on increasing momentum.

Not enough for a short trade yet. For that we need confirmation!
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