The bears are awake fürFX:EURUSD von wsbza

trendanalysis waveanalysis elliottwaves impulse

Close below 1.21545 would at least eliminate the alternative triangle correction

Kommentar:

We may label the internal structure differently but it will not alter the overall structure

Kommentar:

Bearish count

We could expect a 5 waves sequence to complete larger degree wave 1 or A
Green wave (i) ended at 1.2216, close above this level would argue a different wave count

short-term target 1: 1.1992 if green wave (iii) equals to 1.618 times the length of wave (i)
short-term target 2: 1.1827 if blue wave {iii} equals to 1.618 times the length of wave {i}
short-term target 3: end of wave 4 at 1.1554

Kommentar:

2.618 Fib extension at 1.17312

Kommentar:

the dollar index says Euro may decline further

Kommentar:

short-term bear still alive

Kommentar:

alter count: ending diagonal to complete green wave (v)
red wave 1 circle = blue iii of green (v)
red wave 2 circle = blue iv of green (v)
but we need a swift rally breaking the end of red wave 2 circle first
there is no price evidence to confirm the above count so far

Kommentar:

expecting blue wave iv circle correction will end within 38.2% - 50% retracement level

Kommentar:

blue wave iv circle is still under way

Kommentar:

grey triangle wave {iv} or blue wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) for {v}

Kommentar:

the triangle could be the best interpretation so far

Kommentar:

break above wave (c) high of 1.17908 would invalid the triangle count

Kommentar:

short-term sell set up

Kommentar:

ready for sell again?

Kommentar:

it seems wave (e) of {iv} is still unfolding

Kommentar:

wave (e) could be a double zigzag w-x-y or a-b-c-d-e triangle

Kommentar:

time to secure some profits

Kommentar:

possible count 1

Kommentar:

possible count 2

Kommentar:

another new low is still possible, no need to rush into catch the bottom

Kommentar:

EURO has broken the red wave (i) low today. it tells us this is not wave (iv) correction, which also suggests the above bullish case is under way.
We can still argue the red (i) to (v) could be only wave (i) of {v} of 1 or A, but i think it's less likely to happen.
A solid close above the end of wave {iv} at 1.1747 would confirm the 5-waves decline sequence since February has ended

Kommentar:

expanded flat ?

Kommentar:

almost there?

Kommentar:

a lower degree bullish flag would signal a good buy opportunity

Kommentar:

It seems we can label the sub wave v of (c) as an ending diagonal

Kommentar:

bullish target towards 1.18647 where wave {c} travels the same distance as wave {a}

Kommentar:

break below green wave {b} low at 1.14322 would activate alternative count in grey

Kommentar:

let's review the larger structure

Kommentar:

any close below the blue wave {b} low would argue wave 2 or B finished at 1.18153 (Sept high)

Kommentar:

the short-term key support level is the end of blue wave {b} at 1.13021, break below this would eliminate the wave and green count.

Kommentar:

time to adopt more bearish count

Kommentar:

bearish count

Kommentar:

The short-term pattern does not look bearish, maybe a complex {ii} or even wave 2 (or B) is still unfolding

Kommentar:

It is possible to count wave {ii} has finished at 1.14968 (2nd Jan), where sub wave (c) is an ending diagonal. But the correction could be more complex.

Kommentar: