Positive from China, money from Japan, the best deal of the week

8. Mai 2019

The markets somehow calmed down after the shock caused by Trump's tweets. The reason is that the information that China is not going to withdraw the negotiators. This week a Chinese delegation will arrive in Washington for the next round of talks. This is a confirmation of our assumption that Trump's tweets should be responded calmly since this is nothing more than a form of pressure on the negotiators. Another example of similar negotiations we observed was between the USA, Canada and Mexico. The result is well-known - a successful completion with a benefit for the United States, of course. So something similar is happening now.

However, the Fear Index (VIX) does not think to go down. Accordingly, our recommendations for finding points for gold and Japanese yen buying as well as oil sales remain relevant.

Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co, meanwhile, are wondering where the $ 400 billion of Japanese investors will get, which they will receive after redeeming Japan’s government bonds. The amount is more than serious and any of its directional movements, especially one-time, will greatly influence the dynamics of prices in any market. It is quite possible to observe a carry trade wave, which will contribute to the weakening of the Japanese yen. So if a strong movement on sales of the yen suddenly begins in the foreign exchange market, you should not stand in its way. Recall, at one time Soros needed about $ 10-15 billion to crush a pound by 15-20%. Accordingly, $ 400 billion is very serious.

Markets will focus on working out the current fundamental background and price trends on Wednesday.

Recall that this week’s most promising position is buying of the Australian dollar that has been chosen by us. Since the Bank of Australia did not substitute the national currency and showed restraint in the comments (there were no hints at the prospects for reducing the rate), the current points continue to be extremely attractive for mid-term trade with targets of 300-400 points and stops no more than 100.

Our vision of the most promising positions for trading today are unchanged: buying of the Australian dollar and the euro against the dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.