ETH/BTC is Breaking A Long Term Uptrend
Aktualisiert
This is a quick post. A month ago I wrote about the potential long term top for Ethereum's ratio against Bitcoin, comparing it with the distribution seen on the XLM/BTC pair in 2018. 
Since the post, the ratio has declined over 20%, while ETH/USD has tested Summer 2021 lows ($1700). Today, ETH/BTC bounced off the 200 MA on the 3 day chart (teal). Once below, there could be unlimited downside. Although I made a couple of bullish-leaning posts today (short-term), the above chart shows significant risk still exists for the crypto market, and why I'm being cautious. I no longer own any ETH, having sold it all between $3000 and $3300.
Ethereum doesn't tend to do well against the Dollar when it's also not doing well against Bitcoin, so this can be taken as a warning. If Ethereum continues to decline here, what then does that say about the rest of the altcoins in the crypto space? The implications here are pretty serious. Still, even if ETH loses market share, it might eventually be worth considering if there will be other blockchains that take its place. Not so sure about that yet, and the technology may not even currently exist. As I wrote today, I bought some ATOM and ALGO for fun, though I may quickly abandon those.
This is not meant as financial advice! This is meant for speculative and entertainment purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Since the post, the ratio has declined over 20%, while ETH/USD has tested Summer 2021 lows ($1700). Today, ETH/BTC bounced off the 200 MA on the 3 day chart (teal). Once below, there could be unlimited downside. Although I made a couple of bullish-leaning posts today (short-term), the above chart shows significant risk still exists for the crypto market, and why I'm being cautious. I no longer own any ETH, having sold it all between $3000 and $3300.
Ethereum doesn't tend to do well against the Dollar when it's also not doing well against Bitcoin, so this can be taken as a warning. If Ethereum continues to decline here, what then does that say about the rest of the altcoins in the crypto space? The implications here are pretty serious. Still, even if ETH loses market share, it might eventually be worth considering if there will be other blockchains that take its place. Not so sure about that yet, and the technology may not even currently exist. As I wrote today, I bought some ATOM and ALGO for fun, though I may quickly abandon those.
This is not meant as financial advice! This is meant for speculative and entertainment purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Anmerkung
Update: ETH/BTC has the potential to confirm a longer term bottom here, but only if it can get decisively back above the secondary trendline. Strong volume off the low, showing potential capitulation. ETH itself tested the important $800 level I've been watching for months. However, it will also need to get back above that previous all-time high (near $1440) very fast. Anmerkung
A break below the recently tested trendline could spell disaster for the future of Ethereum, so bulls better hope it continues to hold. Anmerkung
Miraculously, the secondary ETH/BTC trendline held, and it's now bouncing back above the main trendline. Closing multiple days above it could send ETH/BTC to some new highs for this cycle, or even on to test all-time high. Still, strange conditions for ETH to be running this hot, though the merge is supposedly coming in September. Could easily end up being a sell the news event, but this rise is happening 2 months prior already. Who knows? 
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