ES (SPX, SPY) - Week-Ahead Analysis, Levels Oct 27th - 31st

Big picture (D/4H/1H)

Price is pressing a thin ceiling at 6,875–6,895. With ES at ATHs, the next upside extension targets sit at 6,968 → 7,044 → 7,128 on 4H. HTF trend is up, but intraday is stretched and vulnerable to a sweep-and-revert before any fresh leg.

Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)

1) Rejection Fade at R1 (Tier-1 A++):
Look for a sweep above 6,888–6,895, then a 15m close back inside the band → 5m re-close under ~6,885 → take the first 1m pullback that stalls below.
Entry: 6,886–6,892 on the retest from beneath
SL: above the sweep wick (15m anchor)
TP1: 6,845–6,835 (S2); TP2: 6,823–6,812 (S3); TP3: 6,798–6,784 (S4)
Viability check: TP1 ≥ ~2R vs 15m-wick SL. At TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trailing before TP2.

2) Acceptance Continuation above R1 (Tier-1 A++):
If 15m full-body closes ≥6,895, treat that as acceptance. 5m pullback holds 6,892–6,895 → buy the 1m HL.
Entry: 6,893–6,898 hold
SL: below 6,885 (15m wick anchor)
TP1: 6,968–6,975 (R3); TP2: 7,040–7,052 (R4)
Invalidation: 15m body back below 6,885.

3) Quick-Reclaim Bounce at S2 (Tier-2 A+):
Fast flush into 6,845–6,835, tag/sweep, then immediate 1m reclaim with a 5m re-close back above ~6,840.
Entry: on the reclaim/pullback that holds 6,838–6,842
SL: under 6,832 (15m wick)
TP1: 6,888–6,895 (R1); TP2: 6,916–6,922 (R2)

4) Exhaustion Flush Bounce at S4 (Tier-3 A):
If selling extends to 6,798–6,784 with momentum divergence/absorption, buy the first 1m reclaim that converts 6,792–6,796 into a floor.
SL: under 6,780 (15m wick)
TP1: 6,823–6,812 (S3); TP2: 6,845–6,835 (S2); optional TP3 6,888–6,895 (R1)

Week-ahead catalysts to watch (plan risk around these)
• Tue: Conference Board Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET.
• Wed (AMC): MSFT earnings.
• Thu 08:30 ET: US Q3 GDP (Advance); Thu (AMC): AAPL and AMZN earnings.
• Fri 08:30 ET: Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE); Fri 09:45 ET: Chicago PMI.
Expect headline-driven jolts around 08:30 ET Thu/Fri and at the big tech calls after the bell.