Does any technical analysis matter on Fed Day?

To answer to today's question, is probably not. In spite of that, I think the longer looking picture is that we head down.

However, we have several trends that are showing a higher low (30m, 1h, 2h, 3h) so before we head down I'd like to see one of them turn into a downtrend shape. If you remember, we got up here on the back up the 30m trend giving us a nice funnel to follow. As bizarre as it was for the 30m to run off with the market by itself, it still gave some shape for the up.

If you want the trends and don't want to watch the video, they are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3900 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3893 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Higher High
4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High
Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

As you can see, we have several Higher Low's that came in yesterday with the drop. I'd expect us to rebound up, at least to catch a 30m uptrend, before we can head lower.

But, if that doesn't happen before 14:00 EST, just realize I think any position going into the FOMC decision is a gamble. I think we get 75 basis points. I think the Fed talks about finishing with the 50 it said it would do in December, and I think it talks about potentially letting things simmer to see how the rates are having an affect. That SHOULD send us higher, but when economic data actually has a real impact on the markets, it really tends to be anyone's guess on how the market will react. Remember the surge after a rate hike on Powell's speech 6 months ago, just to have a massive drop off the very next day?

Speaking of Economic Data;
We also have NonFarm Employment Change and Challenger Job Cuts. I'm gonna have to go seek out the job cuts, although it didn't seem to be too impactful. NonFarm data is in about 30 minutes.

Earnings;
CVS is this morning, Qualcomm is AMC, otherwise it is just a lot of middle weight companies reporting today.

My overall sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bullish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Bearish/Neutral

As always, remember your risk management plan

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ADP NonFarm Employment is a surprising high reading. 239,000 jobs added. Market doesn't seem to care much, even with the high reading.

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75 bps hike. Statement sounds like they plan to take a step back potentially.

FYI, I went long at 3835 to see if things would rebound like usual into the hiking.

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I may cash out here. There is not a lot of commitment on the upward movement and we are almost heading back to neutral before the press conference

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I've cashed out at 3885. I don't feel like risking a good day on Powell's words today. I do expect us to kind of rise a little more here, I'm just not willing to watch the whipsaw of my earnings go all over.

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So, sounds like Powell is saying that he thinks they will have to hike interest rates higher than he expected.

In terms of trends, which are a nightmare with this kind of whiplash... we did get a lower high 30m before we fell back down here. I may sit out the rest of the day here.

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Just FYI, we have a 4 hour downtrend... all is well in the world again haha

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I've gone long at 3784. Just look for a decent bounce, potentially overnight to above 3800

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Bailed on that trade at 3787 here. I wanted a pullback into the 90s to stay in it. Just no warm and fuzzy. Lunch money for the win though I suppose

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Went long at 3778...
One more shot at a small bounce back here post emotional trading

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Hope if you went into that FOMC conference you made out. Good lord was that a rollercoaster. I may dump this trade at 3778, but honestly, trends say we are now due for a bounce, even if a bit of a small one.
The 6hr downtrend is signaling, and if you saw how we are directly on the line of the higher high uptrend line for this downtrend, it would likely astonish you. Either way, that makes the 6hr a higher low. The 4hr is a higher low and we are below that trend. The 2hr was a higher low, although even if we rally, the next move may now be a lower high. The 1hr is a higher low, and we are well below that.
The 30m is a disaster because it had an uptrend and then immediately after a downtrend, but even there we are well below the downtrend lower low line.
We are directly on the 12hr lower low downtrend line of the uptrends (our last signal).
It does appear we are going to just bounce right off that lower high Daily at this point, but all the trends below it are screaming to have a moment of going back up. So... I'll hold out and see what happens for a bit. I'd like to think that by tomorrow we are back at 3850-3860ish.
While I understand that Powell was hawkish, he's been hawkish a hundred times over and the market rallied regardless. I think this movement was a bit excessive and some of this needs to be given back. Additionally, of all the meetings, I laugh because I felt he had the slightest dovish perspective to this press conference more than any other press conference, and finally people want to trade off the hawkish statements he said to an extreme degree now lol.
Anyways... I'll decide if I'm going to jump, probably will if it hits 3800ish and just take profit, but I'll see what it looks like while I'm awake.

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Oh, not to mention, nearly every indicator for RSI/MFI at 6 hours and below is now oversold. You know my thoughts on most indicators... however... it'll be hard to ignore the excessiveness of the oversold indicators at least for the moment.

SemperTrader

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